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ECON3116 International Trade
Creation date：2024-06-19 14:30:41
Belonging category：经济Economics
International Trade

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ECON3116

International Trade:
Theory & Policy
Van Pham | ECON3116 International Trade Theory and Policy
Introduction
Plan of the lecture:
• What is international trade about?
• Australia’s trade at a glance
• Explaining patterns of trade
• The gravity model
• Gains from trade
• The effects of government policies on trade
• Trade organizations and agreements
1-1
Objective:
• Provide an overview of what International Trade is all about.
• Give you a feel for what is to come later in the course.
Van Pham | ECON3116 International Trade Theory and Policy
1-2
What is international trade about?
There is a growing importance of trade in the world. Global trade grew faster
than GDP in recent decades.
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Trade GDP
World GDP and Global Trade 1990 – 2022 (1990 = 100)
Source: World Bank National account data and WTO Evolution of Trade =
1
2
( + )
Van Pham | ECON3116 International Trade Theory and Policy
1-3
• There was a considerable increase in the ratio of trade to GDP between 1890 and
1913. This trend was ended by World War I and the Great Depression.
• Trade to GDP ratio in most of the industrial countries grew faster during 1970s and
especially from 1990s with the establishment of the WTO.
What is international trade about?
Trade in Goods and Services Relative to GDP
Van Pham | ECON3116 International Trade Theory and Policy
• International economics is about how nations interact through trade of
goods and services, through flows of money and through investment.
• International trade is an old subject, but it continues to grow in
importance as countries become more closely linked through trade in
goods and services, and through investment than ever before.
1-4
What is international trade about?
Van Pham | ECON3116 International Trade Theory and Policy
1-5
What is international trade about?
Many products source many components
from many countries.
Van Pham | ECON3116 International Trade Theory and Policy
1-6
• Trade in goods: Qantas buys Boeing 787 from the U.S, Boeing buys wing
parts from firms in Japan and Korea.
• Trade in services: airline travel, insurance, maintenance & repairs, tourism.
• Offshoring: Boeing sets up a factory in Melbourne, Australia.
What is international trade about?
Van Pham | ECON3116 International Trade Theory and Policy
1-7
Mode 1: Cross Border Supply – only the
service crosses the border through the use
of telecommunications. Examples:
consultancies, distance training.
Mode 2: Consumption Abroad – only the
consumer crosses the border to consume
the services. Examples: tourists, oversea
students attending Australian universities.
What is international trade about? - Trade in Services
100
120
140
160
180
200
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
Merchandise trade
Services trade
Mode 3: Commercial Presence - the supplier crosses the border by establishing a
commercial presence. Examples: branch offices overseas by banks, hotels.
Mode 4: Movement of Natural Persons – the supplier crosses the border
temporarily to deliver services. Examples: a consultant travelling to provide services.
Trade in Goods and Services (2010 =100)
20-25% of Total Trade
75-80% of Total Trade
Source: https://stats.wto.org/
Van Pham | ECON3116 International Trade Theory and Policy
International Trade Versus International Finance
• International trade focuses on transactions of real goods and services across
nations.
– These transactions usually involve a physical movement of goods or a
commitment of tangible resources like labor services.
• International finance focuses on financial or monetary transactions across
nations.
– For example, purchases of US dollars or financial assets by Europeans.
1-8
Van Pham | ECON3116 International Trade Theory and Policy
Australia's Trade at a Glance
1-9
0
30
60
90
120
150
0
30
60
90
120
150
Exports Imports
International trade is even more important to many other countries than it is
to Australia
% of GDP % of GDP
EX: 27%
IM: 21%
EX: 34%
IM: 35%
Export and Import as percentages of GDP in 2022
Source: OECD (2024), Trade in goods and services (indicator)
Van Pham | ECON3116 International Trade Theory and Policy
1-10
Australia’s Exports and Imports value during 2001-2023
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
A$ billion
Exports
Imports
Source: ABS catalogues 5368.0
• International trade has become
increasingly important in the
Australian economy.
• In 2022-23, Australia exports
$685 billion and imports
$547 billion value of goods and
services.
• Australia is the 22nd largest
trade partner in the world and
account for 1.4% of the world
trade flow (as of 2019-20).
Australia's Trade at a Glance
GFC COVID-19
Van Pham | ECON3116 International Trade Theory and Policy
1-11
Exports, Imports and Trade Balance as percentages of GDP (1959 – 2021)
Australia's Trade at a Glance
Source: ABS, Australian National Accounts: National Income, Expenditure and Product, 2021
Trade deficit
Trade surplus
Van Pham | ECON3116 International Trade Theory and Policy
1-12
35.3%
11.8%
5.8%
5.8%
4.4%
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0%
China
Japan
Korea
US
UK
21%
13.4%
5.8%
4.2%
4.1%
0%5%10%15%20%25%
China
US
Japan
Germany
Thailand
Australia's Trade at a Glance
Australia’s top trade partners 2019-20
Source: DFAT Trade and Investment at a glance 2021
Top export markets Top import markets
Van Pham | ECON3116 International Trade Theory and Policy
1-13
Australia’s trade pattern by country has changed over time.
Australia's Trade at a Glance
29%
2019-20
9%
4.5%
13%
Asia: 65%
Australian exports by regionAustralia’s two-way trade by region
Van Pham | ECON3116 International Trade Theory and Policy
1-14
Australia's Trade at a Glance
Exports by sector 2019-20 Imports by sector 2019-20
Source: DFAT Trade and Investment at a glance 2021
Van Pham | ECON3116 International Trade Theory and Policy
1-15
Sources: DISER, Resources and Energy Quarterly, 2022, DAWE, Agricultural Commodities, 2022, ABS, International Trade in Goods and Services, 2022.
Australia's Trade at a Glance
Australia’s export structure has changed overtime.
50%
18%
11%
8%
14%
Van Pham | ECON3116 International Trade Theory and Policy
8.4%
5.5%
4.8%
3.8%
2.6%
2.6%
0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0%9.0%
Personal travel
Refined petroleum
Passenger vehicles
Telecom equipment
Computers
Freight services
21.6%
11.5%
10.0%
8.3%
5.1%
3.4%
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0%
Iron ores
Coal
Natural gas
Edu-related travel
Gold
Personal travel
1-16
Australia's Trade at a Glance
Australia’s top export and import products 2019-20
Source: DFAT Trade and Investment at a glance 2021
Van Pham | ECON3116 International Trade Theory and Policy
Source: UN Comtrade database 2018
1-17
• 1st global exporter of iron ore and coal
• 2nd largest exporter of aluminium ores, unwrought lead
and zinc ores
• 3rd largest exporter of copper ores (by value)
• 2nd largest exporter of beef
• 3rd largest exporter of lentil
• 4th largest exporter of sugar
• 4th largest exporter of wine (by value)
Australia's Trade at a Glance
Van Pham | ECON3116 International Trade Theory and Policy
1-18
• Differences in climate and resources can explain the trade pattern of
several goods, e.g., why Brazil exports coffee and Australia exports iron ore.
• In manufacturing and services, the effect of climate and resources on the
pattern of trade is subtle.
• Differences in labor productivity may explain why some countries export
certain products, e.g., why Japan exports automobiles, and the US exports
aircraft?
• Differences in relative supplies of capital, labor and land used in the
production of different goods and services may also be an explanation,
e.g., why some countries export labor-intensive products and others export
capital-intensive products.
Patterns of Trade - Who sells what to whom?
Van Pham | ECON3116 International Trade Theory and Policy
1-19
There are two types of trade:
• Inter-industry trade depends on differences across countries (as per
previous slide).
• Intra-industry trade depends on market size and occurs among similar
countries.
– E.g. the U.S both exports and imports vehicles in large amount;
– E.g. Australia both exports and import wine
Intra-industry trade can be
• Trade in Horizontally Differentiated Goods.
• Trade in Vertically Differentiated Goods.
Patterns of Trade - Who sells what to whom?
Van Pham | ECON3116 International Trade Theory and Policy
1-20
Patterns of Trade - The Gravity Model
Van Pham | ECON3116 International Trade Theory and Policy
1-21
• Trade with APEC countries accounts for 75% trade volume of Australia.
• The 5 largest trading partners with Australia in 2020 were China (29%),
ASEAN countries (14%), Japan (11%), U.S (10%), and Korea Rep. (5%)
• Gravity model: Determinants of trade patterns
– influence of an economy’s size on trade
– distance and other factors that influence trade
1-21
The Gravity Model - Motivation
Van Pham | ECON3116 International Trade Theory and Policy
1-22
Size matters
The size of an economy is directly related to the volume of imports and exports.
• Larger economies produce more goods and services, so they have more to
sell in the export market.
• Larger economies generate more income from the goods and services sold,
so people are able to buy more imports.
The Gravity Model - Motivation
Van Pham | ECON3116 International Trade Theory and Policy
1-23
Other things besides size matter for trade:
• Distance between markets influences transportation costs and therefore the
cost of imports and exports.
• Cultural affinity: if two countries have cultural ties or common language, it is
likely that they also have strong economic ties.
• Geography: ocean harbors and a lack of mountain barriers make
transportation and trade easier.
The Gravity Model - Motivation
Van Pham | ECON3116 International Trade Theory and Policy
1-24
• Multinational corporations: corporations spread across different nations
import and export many goods between their divisions.
• Borders: crossing borders involves formalities that take time and perhaps
monetary costs like tariffs.
• These implicit and explicit costs reduce trade.
• The existence of borders may also indicate the existence of different
languages or different currencies, either of which may impede trade more.
The Gravity Model - Motivation
Van Pham | ECON3116 International Trade Theory and Policy
1-25
In its basic form, the gravity model assumes that only size and distance
are important for trade in the following way:
=
∗ ∗

where
is the value of trade between country i and country j
A is a constant
is the GDP of country i
is the GDP of country j
is the distance between country i and country j
The Gravity Model - Specification
Van Pham | ECON3116 International Trade Theory and Policy
1-26
In a slightly more general form, the gravity model that is commonly estimated is
=
∗
∗



where a, b, and c are allowed to differ from 1.
Perhaps surprisingly, the gravity model works fairly well in predicting actual trade
flows, as the figure above representing US–EU trade flows suggested.
The Gravity Model - Specification
Van Pham | ECON3116 International Trade Theory and Policy
Estimated gravity equation can be expressed as
ln = ln + ln + ln − ln +
which can be estimated using data via ordinary least squares regression.
The gravity model predict that a 1% increase in the distance between
countries is associated with a decrease in the volume of trade of 0.7% to 1%.
The Gravity Model - Specification
Van Pham | ECON3116 International Trade Theory and Policy
1-28
The Gravity Model – Empirical Evidence
The size of European economies
and the value of their trade with the
United States
Source: U.S Department of Commerce,
European Commission
Van Pham | ECON3116 International Trade Theory and Policy
1-29
Economic size and Trade with the
United States
Source: U.S Department of Commerce,
European Commission
The United States does markedly more
trade with its neighbours than it does
with European economies of the same
size.
The Gravity Model – Empirical Evidence
Van Pham | ECON3116 International Trade Theory and Policy
1-30
• Distance and borders increase the cost and time needed to trade.
• The negative effect of distance on trade is significant, but it has grown
smaller over time due to modern transportation and communication.
• Trade agreements between countries are intended to reduce the formalities
and tariffs needed to cross borders, and therefore to increase trade.
• The gravity model can be used to assess the effect of trade agreements on
trade given GDPs and distances from one another of trading partners.
The Gravity Model – Distance and Borders
Van Pham | ECON3116 International Trade Theory and Policy
1-31
Gains from Trade - Issues
• Is international trade good or bad?
• to a country
• to firms in an industry
• to consumers
• to workers
Van Pham | ECON3116 International Trade Theory and Policy
Gains from Trade - International trade in headlines
1-32
Van Pham | ECON3116 International Trade Theory and Policy
Gains from Trade – Reason for Gains
Several ideas underlie the gains from trade
• When a buyer and a seller engage in a voluntary transaction, both receive
something that they want and both can be made better off.
• Australian consumers could buy cars through international trade that
they otherwise would have a difficult time producing.
• The producer of the cars receives income that it can use to buy the
things that it desires.
• This is sometimes referred to as mutually beneficial trade.
1-33
Van Pham | ECON3116 International Trade Theory and Policy
• How could a country that is the most (least) efficient producer of everything
gain from trade?
• With a finite amount of resources, countries can use those resources to
produce what they are most productive at (compared to their other
production choices), then trade those products for goods and services that
they want to consume.
• Countries can specialize in production, while consuming many goods and
services through trade.
1-34
Gains from Trade – Reason for Gains
Van Pham | ECON3116 International Trade Theory and Policy
• Trade is predicted to benefit a country by making it more efficient when it
exports goods which use abundant resources and imports goods which
use scarce resources.
• When countries specialize, they may also be more efficient due to large
scale production.
• Trade allows for a greater variety of goods available to consumers.
• Trade leads to more competition among domestic firms and a more
efficient allocation of resources in the domestic economy.
1-35
Gains from Trade – Reason for Gains
Van Pham | ECON3116 International Trade Theory and Policy
Gains from Trade – Who might lose?
Trade is predicted to benefit countries as a whole in several ways, but trade
may harm particular groups within a country.
• International trade can adversely affect the owners of resources that are used
intensively in industries that compete with imports.
• Trade may therefore have effects on the distribution of income within a
country, e.g., changes in wages of high and low-skilled workers
• Conflicts about trade should occur between groups within countries rather
than between countries.
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COMP2013 IB9X60 INVP001 EMATM0051 COMP220 BLAW1002 E20 TCP8001 ECON61001 EART40005 ECONM1022 MATH 365 MATH 367 ELEC6218 COMP 5812M EDUC 5061M ELEC ENG 1101 equation MATH6174 ST334 C4 EC9570 A33648 EBUS603 ECON47815 stata WFMS0001 PEM102 INF6060 ionically ELECTRICAL MATH 375 MMW 12 MKTG860 ECON60401 ALY6010 SOST20131 Introduction COM3524 MME2 GGR305 JNB 538 EECS101 COMM5030 IEOR E4601 2B CSC336 EN2315 LAW 432 CSC263 MATH2001 OLET1143 CSCB63 SIT772 COMM1170 STAT 441 MS930 INFT3050 GLBH0030 Stat 120B MAST10007 MGEC61 Machine GGR 252H1S ECON7030 Financial Marketing MGMT30019 ECON5120 SDSC 8009 CSC165H1S DSCI 551 3081W ACM41000 ECA 5304 MATH 1064 ECSE444 DATA 604 COMP7105 MIE1615 ECON4004 ENV200H1S EC481 MKT 306 EC1B1 MATH08051 ALY6140 CS260C CSE30 MSIN0226 CS4103 CSC3064 AM16 COMP11212 CSE4101 PSTAT 174 Math 380W CNT 5106C STAT 310 FIN2028 CS5014 STAT 425 COMP 4102A ELEC2140 MANF9544 QRM 9 QRM 8 ECON 457 COMPSCI 4091 MATH 523 DNSC-4211 PEAS 6000 MSIN0180 COMP2119 A2A HT 2022 IB93F0 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ACCOUNTING BUSS1040 CHEM 181 MAT136H1 GY 6183 COMP3170 AGRI90089 PHYSICS 1002 ECON10003 IEOR E4004 ACS61012 MATH 40550 MKTG2113 TELE4653 ENSC1004 ECE 232E MK726 MTRX2700 SHEET 3 CSCA08 COMP30027 Math 2XX3 statistic MMAN3200 BISM7213 ECMM109 ECON 2022 FNCE 20005 GR5067 CSCB09 ME 3017 CS 5100 PHYS 2903 COMS 4771 COMP222 COMP 1046 CSC148H1 ISYS2038 FINS2615 OT5206 COMP2048 A6 MECH5770M MA826/20 CMPT 726 STA457 INFS6071 INFS588 integral ECON 216 IRDR 0017 MA323 PA 15213 PSYC2001 ENV222 Statistics ACCT5930 ACCT12 LAND2121 ME 5405 COMM1180 TELE3113 A7 ECE 568 ACCT2019 INFS1200 ENGG1340 CS 1400 ASST3 FINM7409 SWEN30006 INFO2222 FIN20150 SOSS1000 CSSE7231 FINS5513 COMS3200 CECN 702 ECON4060H MN3515 HW2 PSYA02H3 ECON 2112 COMP90051 CS 1652 MA30059 AF1605 MKTG7501 ECO-6003B COM4521 CTM ECON3350 COMP 3804 ELEC9762 BISM 7255 ST22 MATH20014 MNE3122 COMP343 MATH5165 ELE7029 ENGR30002 SEEM3500 ECON7350 RISK5002 FINM7405 COMP90059 MOS 3320B STAT 431 BISM7221 MATH3014 MTH783P EBA 35302 ACS133 BUS2206 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FN1024 MATH0094 MANG 6554 ECOS3003 ELEC6252 C2511C PHY328 EC1060 ECON32202 COMP4002-E1 MATH3063 EFIMM0124 QBUS2310 ECON4411 FUNDAMENTALS ACCT20001 18YX RPM COMP 2711 QBUS6600 BUSS5221 ST3189 FIT1047 MAT344 EGB375 MATH60013 MATH96011 COMP3557 MAST20029 ECM159 EAE1011 ENSCEN 105 SECTION A STA 141C SOSE 2022 PAM006 COMP0048 M40007 ISOM2500 CMPE 142 A06472 MCC150 ACST 8083 GEOG6087 ECON920 FINM7008 ENVENG 4110 COMPSCI 361 ENGRCEE 21 PHYS 1112 ACF2100 ECMM108 COMPS267F MAT00050M MAST30025 CSIT970 MSCI 224 INT202 PUBL0054 MSDM5004 BMAN 21020 BMAN21020 MGMT1002 MATH11150 LAWS7023 ACTL30002 CIVL3340 MATH1002 ECON 8069 COMPSCI 351 IBUS7302 STAT4528 CHEM1101 STAT3925 BUSN 7008 Comp 3120 ECOS2040 SWEN90010 ENGN6528 ECM158 ECON20022 COMP6452 Calculation CITS1401 S1889112 BUS 351 ACTL30008 FIT2091 ECON6002 IBUS6020 PHI 001 ECON30290 MATH7501 ECON10004 MFIN7017 ISYS90043 LAWS7012 ECON30025 COMP30023 COMM1190 ECOM20001 GSBS6009 STAT 337 EMET8002 ECOM90001 ECOM30001 FINC 2012 BUSINESS ENGCV512 ECO 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CMP7000A CMP-7038B Math 263 LAW3016 CS371 STAT 334 FIN0008 ACC3004 STAT 371 ​COMP1921 MTH201 ACCT2000 UN3412 CIV6000 MATHS 3021 MATE7014 ECON1 CIBC6035 LAW121G COMM 321 CSC8204R TTM2033 CSCI 2600 MAE 115 LNG302 CENV6175W1 ECON30019 CPS2015 BST969 DDES9015 AMATH242 CS 1151 N1592 ACCT600 EG503G SMM519 EC318 Ecstatistics EEE 471 MARK2051 Topology COM00037H ACCT3000 MTHM501 EG501V COM00055H BUSN9085 GGR273 MATH 2B ITD102 MA214 ECON0060 ECE3114 ECMM447 Mechanics CCT361H5S BSAN3210 WELF2001 Fin3001 RESP5001 STA 137 Linguistics 101 CSCI368 CMPSC497 LUBS3655 OMBA 5355 BUSM2562 ​BFF5902 CYBR7001 CULT2005 ECON 7720 MTRX3760 FSE598 ​LUE1001 MGSC 7100 CS3240 COSC7500 ACCT3091 INFOGR TRAN 2080 DESIGN CIVE215001 CIVE2360 CPSC 8430 FNCE2003 Stoichiometry INFS6023 Quantitative Method Math 21D ECE5179 Design ​ECON8022 Chemical DMS 213 ADM1370 BFF5902 BFF2701 AGRI10051 AMN400 ECON7322 ​FINC5090 ​MATH1052 ​SciComp Elec4622 ​FINS5516 ENG 101 MMM143 CS431CA2 BSAN2201 EBSC7070 ES9v9-10 PLIN0009 DATA 8 MATH 101 BCPM0097 ​MAT 237 BISM2201 EEE8099 Physics 11 ECE2238B Biostat 234 ​ECON30009 INF10025 CHEM252 CCMA4008 CIVE 3007 STAT0031 ELEC ENG 3108 MGMT90140 CHEM 252 STAT3016 MMM095 ​MMGT6016 Legal STAT 311 ELEC9764 COMP 370 TCS 3053 EECS 1021 FIT1051 C/C++ EE3C COMP2003J COM398 COMP51915 Simulator FIN42330 8PRO102 PGD ELEC5160 XJCO1921 COMP5123M INFS 2042 CHE1148H ECA5313 IN3329 Microsoft Modeling B15 2TT COMP3687 COMP2432 DMS2030 KAN4TSF CFKG CSE 5322 CSE 445 STATS 3DA3 CHC5223 COMP1048 EL3105 EECS 3221 CS231 ME 4434 ITP4510 ITP4501 CSCI 5708 Controller EECE 5699 CPEN 231L CPN programs CSC8016 MATU9D2 ENGN4213 2. SVM. (10 points) Consider an SVM classifier using RBF kernel, and finish the following python code to search for the optimum kernel parameter γ. You are required to calculate the RBF function and search yourself, instead of using functions in Scikit-Learn (sklearn). def parameter search(gamma list ,Xtr,ytr,Xts,yts ,...): """ Parameters gamma list: A list of RBF kernel parameter gamma to search for Xtr: Training data, shape (ntr,nrow,ncol) ytr: Training labels, shape (ntr,) Xts: Test data, shape (nts,nrow,ncol) yts: Test labels, shape (nts,) ... Add other parameters as needed Returns: gamma optimum: The gamma with minimum error on Xts, yts """ ... return gamma optimum
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