CVEN30008 Engineering Risk Management
Engineering Risk Management
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CVEN30008 Engineering Risk Management
Assignment 2 (Semester 1, 2024)
Quantitative Risk Analysis of a Chlorination Disinfection Process
BACKGROUND:
The case study project used for CVEN30008 Engineering Risk Management Assignments this
year is “The Tertiary Upgrade of the Eastern Treatment Plant” and the briefing slides you
received about the project for Assignment 1 are also relevant for Assignment 2. The advanced
tertiary treatment plant flow diagram is shown diagrammatically below; your Assignment 2 is
focused on the chlorine disinfection element of the process.
In addition to the slides provided for the project case study, you should refer to the EPA
Victoria publication “Disinfection of Treated Wastewater – Guidelines for Environmental
Management”. You may also undertake research into relevant academic papers and
government reports.
ASSIGNMENT CONTEXT:
For the purposes of Assignment 2, you can assume that you are a Project Engineer on the
Tertiary Upgrade of the Eastern Treatment Plant and you and your team have been asked to
report on the performance of the chlorination element of the disinfection process as part of the
commissioning stage of the project.
Your report will be based on a quantitative risk analysis (QRA) to evaluate the risk that the
treated effluent leaving the treatment plant may not comply with the required discharge quality
standard. You can assume that the pre-treatment processes and the ozone and UV disinfection
are performing as designed, in order to carry out the QRA on the disinfection element. However,
the overall treatment process should be considered when reporting on risk treatment options
and ongoing monitoring.
The adopted compliance standards require that the chlorine concentration (Clc) in the
discharged effluent be less than 0.1 mg/L while there must be less than 10 E. coli bacteria per
100 mL of discharged effluent (E. coli count < 10 per 100 mL).
Your report must be consistent with AS ISO 31000:2018 Risk management – Guidelines, and
must address the questions in the following paragraphs.
ASSIGNMENT QUESTIONS:
1. Discuss the most critical risks regarding the discharge quality during operation of the
treatment plant after completion of the Tertiary Upgrade Project, particularly the
performance of the chlorination element of the disinfection process. Some research is
expected and you are required to provide appropriate references (e.g. government
reports and research academic papers).
2. Tests were carried out on 12 random samples collected from the discharged effluent on
a single day to investigate the discharge quality. The test results can be found in the
“Data.xlsx” file which is provided in the Assignment 2 folder on Canvas LMS. Perform
a quantitative risk analysis using MATLAB as follows:
a. Produce a descriptive statistics summary for Clc and E. coli count.
b. Find the 99% confidence interval of Clc and E. coli count.
c. A Quality Control Engineer believes that the discharged effluent meets the
adopted compliance standards to a 5% level of significance. Test the engineer’s
hypothesis.
d. Using the findings in part 2a, perform Monte Carlo simulation (1000 runs) to
determine the probability that the effluent does not meet the adopted
compliance standards. Each group should use the last 3 digits of the student
number of a group member as a random seed number (the seed number must
be indicated in your assignment report) to generate 1000 samples. Provide two
histograms, one for Clc and the other for E. coli count.
e. The equipment used to measure Clc and E. coli count was known to be working
correctly when these 12 samples were tested, but failures may occur in future.
The Quality Control Engineer wants to know whether a linear relationship exists
between Clc and E. coli count. If it does, a system can be developed that
identifies uncharacteristic samples and alerts the engineer to a fault in the
measuring equipment.
Test the engineer’s hypothesis to a 5% level of significance.
Conclude your answer to question 2 with a brief summary of what your results mean,
the consequences and limitations of your findings and anything else you consider
relevant.
3. Based on your findings, propose a risk treatment plan to the project management
committee and suggest ongoing monitoring and review measures.
ASSIGNMENT REPORT:
Your mark for the assignment can only be based on your written submission, so it is important
that sufficient time and effort is allocated to preparing the Assignment Report. All four
members of the group must have input to the Report and agree on the final quality and quantity
of the submission.
The Assignment Report should include at least the following sections:
Cover Page (does not count towards page limit)
Document Status (does not count towards page limit)
1. Executive summary
2. Introduction and purpose
3. Q1. Risk identification
4. Q2. Quantitative risk analysis and risk evaluation
5. Q3. Risk treatment plan and monitoring and review measures
6. Acknowledgement (if applicable)
7. References
Appendix: MATLAB code (does not count towards page limit)
Appendix: Meeting minutes
The references section should include a list of all documents (other than the lecture slides) that
you have used in your research. You should use one consistent reference format throughout
your report – APA or Harvard is recommended.
Use of generative AI is ONLY allowed for grammar and spelling check. Paraphrasing and
translating is prohibited and considered as ACADEMIC MISCONDUCT. You must disclose
the use of generative AI and AI-assisted technologies in the writing process in a similar way
as the following sample statement: “During the preparation of this assignment the author(s)
used [NAME TOOL / SERVICE] in order to [REASON].” This statement (if applicable)
should appear in the Acknowledgement Section before the references list.
You must present your MATLAB code using appropriate code fonts and colouring. To achieve
this, first save your MATLAB code to a .m file. Then click “Publish” on the Publish tab of the
MATLAB ribbon and copy-paste the formatted code (not the output) into your report. Clearly
identify the sections of code that were used to solve the different parts of the assignment.
ADMINISTRATION:
You are to undertake this assignment in the same group as Assignment 1. Please identify the
group members and your tutor in the submission.
This assignment is worth 20% of the subject result and should contain no more than 15 pages
excluding the cover page and appendix (MATLAB code).
Submissions must be lodged no later than 5 pm, Friday 24 May 2024. Submissions should
be lodged in Canvas LMS > Assignments > Assignment 2. Only one group member should
make the submission into LMS.
MARKING CRITERIA:
The assignment will be marked in accordance with the Assignment 2 Rubric.