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STAT 3303: Bayesian Analysis and Statistical Decision Making

创建日期：2024-06-15 17:17:58

所属分类：经济Economics

标签： STAT 3303

Bayesian Analysis and Statistical Decision Making

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STAT 3303: Bayesian Analysis and Statistical Decision Making
INSTRUCTIONS
This is an exam and should be treated as such. DO NOT discuss any aspect of this exam with anyone,
including MSLC tutors, other than your instructor. This includes, but is not limited to, not discussing
report structure, coding problems, instructor expectations, how long the exam took you, whether you finished
it, etc. You are responsible for ensuring that other students do not have access to your exam. You may search
online for general coding questions (i.e., “how do I pass through my seed to rjags?”) through websites such
as StackExchange. Use of AI for coding or to assist with the write-up is highly inadvisable (see below).
Any violation of these instructions constitutes academic misconduct and will be reported to the university’s
Committee on Academic Misconduct.
PROBLEM STATEMENT
For sexually reproducing species, the equilibrium ratio of male and female individuals of reproductive age
is a 50/50 ratio. Fisher explained why this would be true – if the ratio deviated from 50/50, it would be
reproductively advantageous for a child to be born of the less frequent gender and the ratio would then
be restored. At birth, among the general population, this ratio is not met – more boys than girls are born
(the proportion of female births is 0.485). Fisher explained this fact is due to higher mortality rates (due
to disease and violence) among boys prior to reaching puberty, and so a disproportionate number of boys
“need” to be born to maintain the equilibrium.
The sex ratio can deviate from the overall average in subpopulations. We saw one example in class, where
placenta previa is associated with a male birth. We will study another possible example in this research
project.
An urban legend exists among U.S. Navy submariners that they disproportionately father girls.1 The belief is
common enough that in 2003 researchers at Bathesda Naval Hospital decided to formally examine whether
it was true and attempt to determine a cause. After obtaining national security and research ethics approvals,
they sent surveys to all submariners stationed at six submarine bases, asking if they had a child born in the
last 12 months, the sex of the child, and a number of work-related demographic questions. They received
responses from 1000 sailors.
A number of causes have been proposed for why submariners may have more girls (if such an effect exists).
The environment is highly stressful, with an erratic and limited sleep schedule. The atmosphere is enclosed
and differs from the normal Earth atmosphere – typical oxygen levels kept are 3-4 percentage points lower
than normal, CO2 levels can be high and require chemical treatment to prevent acute harm to sailors, and all
1At the time of the research this project is based on, submariners were all male. While that has changed, the number of babies
born to female submariners is too small for any useful analysis.
sorts of potentially harmful things like hydraulic oils and refrigerants can leak into the air and remain in the
closed environment. The effects of radiation, either from the nuclear reactor or from the nuclear warheads
carried on board some submarines, may also be a cause. To test these hypotheses, the researchers obtained
data on the following variables:
sea binary indicator where 1 indicates the sailor is currently assigned to a submarine. Sailors will typically
alternate between 2-3 years working directly onboard a submarine and 1-2 years in administrative
duties on shore.
BN binary indicator where 1 indicates the sailor is assigned to a ballistic missile submarine (if sea=1) or his
last command was a ballistic missile submarine (if sea=0). U.S. Navy submarines can be classified
into two types: those that carry nuclear-armed ballistic missiles and those that don’t.
engineering binary indicator where 1 indicates the sailor works directly with the nuclear reactor of a sub-
marine (again, if sea=0 this refers to his last assignment)
weaps binary indicator where 1 indicates the sailor works directly on nuclear weapons (again, if sea=0 this
refers to his last assignment)
time in service a quantitative variable that indicates time in years since the sailor began submarine service
girl binary indicator where 1 indicates the sailor’s child is a girl
ASSIGNMENT:
Write a formal research report as if you were one of the researchers at Bethesda reporting your findings to
your supervisor. Your report should begin with a general discussion of the research question, a description
of your data (don’t forget your exploratory data analysis) including limitations and potential sources of bias.
Only then should you move on to describing your model and reaching some conclusions. Be sure to define
all variables and interpret model parameters to your audience and state whether you have evidence of an
effect and whether or any particular cause can be supported by the data. You will be graded on the level of
professionalism in the report as well as the statistics, so obvious use of AI or any “hallucinations” will be
severely penalized.
Specific modeling guidelines:
1. You should propose a Bayesian regression model for the probability that a sailor with a certain set of
covariates has a girl. For your priors, you should use the guidance from the lecture notes on Bayesian
regression – you do not want to use a weakly uninformative prior as it is highly unlikely that there
will be very large effect sizes.
2. Specify your model in detail, including conditional independence and prior assumptions (providing
just your code is NOT sufficient).
3. Provide details on model fitting (what were your starting values, how many iterations did your algo-
rithm run, how did you diagnose convergence of the model fitting algorithm).
2
4. Provide interpretations of the results of your statistical analysis in the context of the problem with
particular focus on what parameters have a high posterior probability of differing from zero.
5. You should include at least one posterior predictive estimate for the probability of a girl for a given
set of covariates.
FORMATTING GUIDELINES:
• Your report should be typed. You may use R Markdown if you wish, but DO NOT include any code
in the main body of your report.
• Again, carefully proofread and spell check your report. Write in complete sentences and in para-
graphs, not bulleted lists.
• Define all mathematical notation in the text of the report.
• Make sure all figures/tables are straightforward to understand, have captions, and are referenced in
the text.
• Include commented code in an appendix.
• You may assume that the reader is familiar with Bayesian statistics, but not that they are familiar with
the content of STAT 3303. For example, do not refer to specific examples that have been discussed in
lecture or homework.
Your report should be no longer than six pages double-spaced, including figures and tables. (Text, figures,
and tables that are after six pages may not be considered by the instructor.) Your appendix with code does
not count toward the six page limit.
Submit your final exam report as a single PDF file on Carmen before the deadline.

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FE 825 IERG 5130 STAT 8178 EE161 ADS2 G54FUZ CS326 113B ECN 226 QBUS6860 ELEC3202 COMP9334 MGT11B MET CS 777 STA238 00099F Python SMM306 CMT206 EC116 SP MAST90084 CS480/680 BCPM0091 CMPT 300 ECON2209 FY20 STAT 432 CVEN9625 MATH1712 CMP9771M CMP3750M CIS 325 AI506 MAT344H1S MGT7180 PSTAT 160B CSYS5010 1D STAT 453/558 ME152B STA304H1F CSCI-128 ME428 CO3002 FINE 7640 COMP3234 ECSE 223 EE497 – 3D MATH5905 ECS648U ENG5009 MATH10242 EC665 A CPI221 ISOM5220 MACE40402 MGT B456F COMP9315 AFM 113 STAT 778 CS 564 MA231 CS 230 CS 124 COMP5511 CSC317 ITEC1010 ELEC207 INFT 3019 7CCMFM06 EE 161 5G ECLT5810 MATH 7349 CS526 O2 COMP90054 ELE00063M ACCT5034 ARC1015 CSCI 40 CSCI E40 FIN 524B CS 462 389COM CMT309 MFIN703 COMP4250 STA304 STA304H1S STA 1003 FIN 448 BUFN 732 CS520 CVEN3701 ECMT6006 PHAS0100 CSIT314 MDIA 5028 CSCI 2134 MAT 451 CMPT 459 STAT 457 INFO20003 COMP4141 IELE8066 F540 ECM9 CSE 6321 FIN 430 MATH3911 BFC5916 COMP1011 EEE 6209 STATS 240 CW3 COMP206 COMP1003 4331W ISE 530 CMPT 295 MATH 239 QF5203 INFR08010 IT114105 FIT2093 ECON3124 ECON1195 MATH 337 STAT 3006 COMP202 COMP3130 MATH3609 COMP 250 CS6140 IEEE ELE00041I FIN40090 CIV 5899 MATH3066 IGNMENT MATH 2009 STAT3405 HIST 101 MATH 3281 CEGE0042 ICT532 LAB 7 LAB 5 MCO455 CSIT214 Q4 IFB104 A1 ECO220Y5Y DA5020 CMPSC473 FIN9007 DSCI553 MSCI534 COMP3308 CSE-112 CMPT 310 EE104 F 2C P20 ALY2010 BUSM060 STA258 ECO00030M R BIOSTAT 274 COS6012-B FIT3155 CMPUT 340 EC421 INFS4205 ECOM135 NATS 1740 COMP809 MBE 6005 STA465 CSSE2310 CIVL2700 DATA4700 CMPSC 473 ISE 529 CS5044 MAST30020 COMP2207 ENGG1001 COMP0046 FIT3165 STAT GR5241 MECH0007 vATHK1001 ANALYTIC ATHK1001 MATH352001 HW3 S1 BMAN 24662 COMP 636 Stat-461 STAT 302 STAT 2132 STAR534 ENG4137 CMP3752M CS3103 BISM3222 STA 135 ME155A IIMT3601 ECON3371 ECON 3371 HW4 FINA 5840 DT211C CTEC3902 MAT005 MATH2148 S261F Econ 332 MATH3734 MIS41270 7CCMFM13 SYST 664 CIS434 CENG10014 MT4111 MT4527 ECMM424 CMT219 Math 136 MATH 3120 COMP10002 MAST20009 MATH0058 BEEM117 ISYE 6420 MGMTMFE 405 25579 1ECE 273 M122 COMP4434 1ELEC ELEC5620M STAT0010 BFF2401 MXB361 MATH3811 CS330 CMT307 FIT1033 CptS 583 UP 431 MATH6005 AF5343 CS2435 ECOM30002 ES50061 CS 2506 ECMT6002 CODE 00099F MT4539 ESSAY ICM317 MATH1231 MFIT5010 BMA547 MATH334 CIVL2201 MATH39032 T-04 CIVE97119 EMESTER CAB302 CAB301 59PM STAT802 ISYS3412 RM3 COSC 2123 AcF 311 MATH2022 1FINAL 4CCS1PHC ICM 142 ENVS3023 Math 4023 I1 ACSE8 FIN B385F CS-275 STA 4109-01 A31021 EE140 MT1 EE124 ECO-6004B Inf2-IADS CS126 IS2184 UL18 MATH5092 ECOM009 COMP 6211 ELEC202 MKT3019 IAB230 FIT5046 584-S21 COMP3210 CO250 A29401 MATH 136 MGT6174 ECMT6007 DATA2001 MAT 443 MATH10222 PHDE0071 ELE00123M COSC1295 MAT00045H MATH32032 1004GRC MAS223 COMP10001 DATA3404 CIVL2110 STAT2008 FNCE10002 EEE6431 COM6515 COMP9120 NBS8185 ECTE942 ECON 405 MATH314301 STAT 2011 COMPSCI 350 COMP20007 CMPSC-132 ECON5002 STA 35 MTH6108 FIT5147 MTH6150 100C FINA 5260 DESC9115 ECON4998 NBS8257 GMM ECON 6070 BSA2 ECE599 STATS 102B STA120 INFS601 BFC3241 MATH20602 COMP532 MAS275 COMP5318 COMP4002 FIT5086 MAST20004 FIT3152 FIT5129 CIS2380 CS521 COMP 1005 EECMS CITS5501 ECE 462 ECON 6002 ENG 4051 CSC 648 CMT654 MECHENG 713 PHYS1002 AMME 2000 FP0060 DDES3200 MECHENG 743 BINF90002 FIT2081 ISYS90081 ELECTENG 722 BUS 360 ECOS3010 BUS2810 ETF2100 ENG2048 STAT5002 COMP2017 CEME 2003 MATS3004 COMP9319 PHYS1001 COMP5349 AMME2261 COMP-381 FIT3173 COSC2757 ENG4025 QBUS2820 COMP9414 MATH2021 EOSC118 MFIN6690 PMATH 321 CSE-141L MATH575A COMPSCI5002 COMP1511 management comp2123 FINS3616 COMP 3331 COMS30034 DTSC 71 AcF 702 AcF702 DTSC71 MAT021 ELE8083 ACFI213 EG-127J 127J FIT5163 FIT2001 ELE00113M CMT310 CS 245 ENGL 1101 MTH6115 EE497 CS 325 Math 124A MTH5130 MBA502 MGT 5380 ARCH 1261 F033800 20LLP109 ELE4009 FINANCIAL COMP3331 Computer ECE4179 20T3 COMP9311 COMP9311 UNSW MFIN6210 ACCT 5930 EE590 ENG2029 ECO100 SIT315 ACCT3610 COMP3600 STK2100 FIT2004 COMP30020 ACTL1101 Stat 101B BANA 200 COSC2473 ENGG1400 AI COMP90043 MMF 1914H PHYS 127 CS584 CIVL2010 ECMT2150 CS 333 CP1406 KIT308 Economics 701 ECON3740 ECE 5759 BFC3340 FINC2012 COMP4500 MATH3871 FIT3080 18-819C Economic ECO202Y5Y PHY100 FINC-780 Econ 100B EC602 IE582 EE450 COMP9517 WRDS 150B ECON 570 LECTURE 2 ECA5101 ECE 4420 ADAD9311 FIT3031 CS 544 MF 703 CS 6140 KIT501 ENGSCI 344 CSC171 IE 332 FINM8007 21S2 COSC 1114 FE545 E471 SIT102 CSC108 MAT301 IAE 101 COP3503 STAT2004 EC 303 CS1026 STAT1203 MATH3171 ISOM5160 IFN657 FIT2014 ACCT2102 DSCI550 STATS 330 ELEC421 COMP3670 QBUS6840 MEES:698B MAST30027 MIET1077 Economics IFT 6758 FIT5122 BUSN5101 CptS 111 HRMT5502 Math2018 PP 312 INFS3200 CZ3005 CSSE1001 SENG 2011 MKTG 553Q BUFN 640 COMP507 ETF5952 DATA 311 ECE4043 BANK3011 finance M3H623544 HW1 INFS 7410 AI6103 STAT3888 INFS3208 ACCT7103 ECOS3013 PSYCH 20B F79MA STAT3006 ENGG952 2X MGSC 7000 ECE4132 MSF 526 MATH 3033 CDS 511 EEEE4120 EEET2465 ECA5103 MATH2070 ELEC3104 BU51019 EEE8147 ENGR20003 COSC 1107 ETF3200 FNCE 435 MSFI 435 ISyE6420 GENG4405 HW ETC5523 IE 7315 MOEC0021 STA 106 ENGG 1300A ENGG 1300 OLET1139 STAT 3503 STAT 206 FEM11149 ELEN 4720 COMP20003 SOLA1070 CS574 C11CS LINB29H3 MAST90083 ECON7200 STAT 610 LINB29 DSM-5 COMP3161 EEEN40010 MATH 4431 K353 STA 3386 IERG4300 COMS W4167 ENG5298 AMME 2302 CS3910 COMPSCI 320 STATS 369 GR5242 COSC 328 CSCI435 MGTS1301 INFS2200 COMP3900 CIS 375 Module AE03 COMP3121 CS260 HAM503 MGMT5050 INT3075 COSC 285 GEOL0029 GEGE2X01 STAT1201 MATH1061 MMF1941H STAT 5060 CS 520 COMP 4320 MSIN0104 000T FINS3648 ECMT2160 ECON4003 Phys 129L CSE 142 CS 3130 MGEB01 EECS 340 Finance (20443/20444) ECMM149 COMP5310 EEEN60180 CSC 111 AT2 CSCI 4430 STAB57 MA/CSC 427 MATH322 D100 CSCI544 CITS3004 CI6227 CSE 565 APCO 1P01 852L1 ELEC S411F COMP3207 STATS330 ECON7530 FIT5149 CSI4104 CMPT 371 COMP201 SEHS4696 FI4003 MATH6182 CG1 WS MATH401 MGT 205 QTM 110 COMP 0137 MACE12201 FIT5210 ECE 544 BISM7206 HUDM 6055 ECON3203 STATS 210 MSCI 570 MATH6173 COMPSCI4039 Accounting COM3503 AOE2024 ECON213 PSYC10004 Control Data 100/200A PHIL2617 PHYS3116 MIE250 BCPM0008 ECN 620 QBUS6830 ECSE-415 ECON5102 MGMT20005 MAT 653 ECO 480 COMP 5/600 CSSE 5600 ME 571 7CCMMS61 CS 550 COMP2865 MATH3075 STATS 506 QTM 220 ISYS2120 FIT5106 STAT 153 MKTG3112 ECON2102 ELE2018 COMP3031 MSIN0010 SCC461 MATH237 CS246 CSC3065 CSE 101 ICTWEB411 COMP9313 ECOS 2025 FN620 MATH11111 MATH 3018 KE1068 FINA 6112 C++ MISM 6202 MSIN0105 CSC8631 MECO6935 COMP4121 ACCT2011 DPBS1150 EEL 3701C F19PL OPM 661 CSE 310 CS918 BIOL30001 ACCT3563 BANK3600 MET CS622 MATH367 ACCT5907 Continuing COMP5048 COMP61021 CS3334 GSOE9210 CSCI-570 COMP 5322 HW 2 ALY-6020 IEOR 4706 DATA 200 EBUS504 CGE12412 COMP4108 7SSMM800 ECMM171P MATE50002 CS225 RS 6003 BH2274 ELEC3111 MAT6669 ECON-UA 227 PHIL 1012 7SSMM603 TB028A P6 ECS708 CSC 427 CS6476 CSE 250A A1A2 ITS61504 EECS 376 model HW6 UV0010 ECON 6074 MG4F7 CMP-7030Y INFO3008 BFIP013 ECON 5068 MATH6002 CS3483 PSTAT 131 C31FM CSOR W4246 AAEC 5307 DATA ELEC362 COMSM0047 ECN6006 MA20224 BST351 MATH 323 MATH323 AA2021 COMP3811 COMP2013 IB9X60 INVP001 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