Systems Modeling and Simulation
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MIE 360: Systems Modeling and Simulation
Tutorial 2: CLT and Monte Carlo Simulation
1. An insurance company serves five large customers. The insurance claim placed by each cus-
tomer in a year is exponentially distributed with mean 200. Assume that the insurance claims
from different customers are independent from each other.
(a) Estimate the probability that the total insurance claim placed by all customers in a year
exceeds 900 by using the CLT.
(b) Use simulation to estimate this probability. First, find the required number of samples
to achieve ±0.01 accuracy with 95% confidence using the approach discussed in the
lecture. Then use the obtained number of samples to get the estimate. Implement
your solution using Python. You might find the list of Python functions at the end
of this document helpful. (Hint: In this question you may use the Python function
numpy.random.exponential(scale=α, size=n) to generate n random exponential numbers
with mean α. Later in the course you will learn how to transform uniform random
numbers into exponential ones.)
(c) Repeat parts a) and b) for 30 customers’ total claims exceeding 5,400.
2. The lifetime of a special type of battery has mean 40 hours and standard deviation 20 hours
(the unknown distribution does not take negative values). A battery is used until it depletes
at which point it is replaced by a new one. Use the central limit theorem to estimate the
number of required batteries, the lifetimes of which are independent, so that the probability
that we obtain a total of 1,100 hours of use is more than 88.5%.
3. Assume that you rolled a die for 10,000 times and the outcomes that you obtained are given
by the data in the attached spreadsheet (“Tutorial 2.xlsx”). You suspect if the die is fair or
not.
Note: You can download the attached “Tutorial 2.ipynb” Jupyter (IPython) Notebook which
contains the code for reading the data and storing it as a numeric array. You need to put the
file (Tutorial 2.xlsx) and Tutorial 2.ipynb in the same folder before executing the code.
(a) Compute a 95% CI for the mean roll of the given die based on the given data, and
compare your CI to the value you should obtain if the die is actually fair. Does the die
look fair?
(b) Compute a 95% CI for the probability that a roll of the given die yields the value 1, and
compare your CI to the value you should obtain if the die is actually fair. Does the die
look fair?
(c) Explain the differences, if any, in your conclusion between parts a and b.