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FINM7409 Financial Management

Creation date：2024-06-01 16:54:33

Belonging category：金融Finance

Tag FINM7409

Financial Management

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FINM7409 Financial Management for

Decision Makers
Lecture 5: Financial Statement Analysis and Interpretation
CRICOS code 00025B
Roadmap for today
Lecture 5 2
FINM7409
1. Lecture
2. Key information about the Mid-semester
Exam next week (8:00AM, Wednesday,
August 30)
CRICOS code 00025B
1. Explain why different user groups require financial statements to be analysed and interpreted
2. Describe the nature and purpose of financial analysis
3. Apply the analytical methods of horizontal, trend, vertical, and ratio analyses
4. Define, calculate, and interpret the rations that measure profitability
5. Define, calculate, and interpret the rations that measure asset efficiency
6. Define, calculate, and interpret the rations that measure capital structure
7. Define, calculate, and interpret the rations that measure market performance
8. Explain the interrelationships between ratios and use ratio analysis to discuss the financial performance
and position of an entity
9. Discuss the limitations of ratio analysis
Learning outcomes
Lecture 5 3
FINM7409
CRICOS code 00025B
 What is financial analysis?
 Uses reported numbers from financial statements to form opinions about an entity’s financial
position and performance
 Typically, about financial ratios and interpretation of such ratios
 Why financial ratios?
1. A quick and simple way to examine the financial health of a business
2. Can be used to compare the risk and return relationships in firms of different sizes
 Therefore, financial ratios can provide a profile of a business, its economic characteristics and
competitive strategies, as well as its unique operating, financial, and investment characteristics
Introduction
Lecture 5 4
FINM7409
CRICOS code 00025B
 Caveat: This process of standardization may be deceptive because it ignores the following:
 Differences among industries
 Effect of varying capital structures
 Differences in accounting and reporting methods, esp. when comparing firms from different
countries
Introduction
Lecture 5 5
FINM7409
CRICOS code 00025B
 User groups are interested in different aspects of a business
 Broad categories of users of financial statements:
1. Resource providers (e.g., creditors, lenders, shareholders and employees)
2. Recipients of goods and services (e.g., customers)
3. Parties performing an overview or regulatory function (e.g., the ATO, corporate regulators or a
statistical bureau)
4. Management: to assist in their decision-making
 Different user groups have different needs for information
Users and decision making
Lecture 5 6
FINM7409
 Credit analysts ⇒ credit status
 Financial institutions ⇒ credit risk
 Shareholders/investors ⇒ ability to make profits that can be
distributed or retained to reinvest
 Equity analysts ⇒ market value of a listed entity to make
buy/sell recommendations
CRICOS code 00025B
 Financial analysis involves expressing reported numbers from financial statements in relative terms
Why?
 Absolute numbers are not meaningful for evaluating a company’s past decisions and predicting its
future rewards and risks
 This applies to a comparison of different companies
 ⇒ Need to express a reported number in relation to other numbers
 This process involves comparing numbers to:
1. Equivalent numbers from previous years
2. Other figures in the financial statements
 4 methods:
Nature and purpose of financial analysis
Lecture 5 7
FINM7409
1. Horizontal analysis
2. Trend analysis
3. Vertical analysis
4. Ratio analysis
CRICOS code 00025B
 This method compares reported numbers in the current period with equivalent numbers for a previous
period
 E.g., numbers for 2023 compared with corresponding numbers for 2022
 Usually presented in a 2-column format
 One column for current period
 One column for previous period
 Purpose: To make it easier to calculate the absolute dollar change and the % change between the
two periods
Horizontal analysis
Lecture 5 8
FINM7409
1. Horizontal analysis
2. Trend analysis
3. Vertical analysis
4. Ratio analysis
CRICOS code 00025B
 Calculate the absolute $dollar$ change as follows:
 Calculate the % change as follows:
 Be careful when the previous-period number is 0 or when interpreting the direction of change, e.g.,
positive (increase), negative (decrease), or zero (no change)
Horizontal analysis
Lecture 5 9
FINM7409
1. Horizontal analysis
2. Trend analysis
3. Vertical analysis
4. Ratio analysis
Absolute $dollar$ change = Current-period number – Previous-period number
% Change = Absolute $dollar$ changePrevious − period number × 100
See Figures 8.1 – 8.3 of the
textbook for an example
CRICOS code 00025B
 This method predicts the future direction of various items based on the direction of the items in the past
 Usually requires ≥ 3 years of data for it to be meaningful:
 E.g., income statements for 3 consecutive (financial) years
 Trend analysis is useful in identifying the significance of an item relative to a base amount, so it is useful
for formulating predictions about the future prospects of a business
 To identify a trend in the data, convert the numbers into an index:
 E.g., for an analysis of 3 years 2017 – 2019, use 2017 as the base year and set the base year at an
index of 100, and then express all subsequent numbers for 2018 and 2019 relative to the base year
2017
Trend analysis
Lecture 5 10
FINM7409
1. Horizontal analysis
2. Trend analysis
3. Vertical analysis
4. Ratio analysis
CRICOS code 00025B
 As an example, to identify the trend for sales revenue over 2017 – 2019, use the following steps:
Trend analysis – Example
Lecture 5 11
FINM7409
Step 1: Set 2017 as the base year, assigning it an index of 100
Step 2: Divide 2018 sales revenue by 2017 sales revenue and
express it as an index by multiplying the result by 100
$6,854.3$5,628.0 × 100 = 122
1. Horizontal analysis
2. Trend analysis
3. Vertical analysis
4. Ratio analysis
CRICOS code 00025B
 That calculate is for 1 year over 2017 – 2018
 What about for 2 years from 2017 through 2019?
Trend analysis – Example
Lecture 5 12
FINM7409
$7,095.3$5,628.0 × 100 = 126
1. Horizontal analysis
2. Trend analysis
3. Vertical analysis
4. Ratio analysis
CRICOS code 00025B

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SVM. (10 points) Consider an SVM classifier using RBF kernel, and finish the following python code to search for the optimum kernel parameter γ. You are required to calculate the RBF function and search yourself, instead of using functions in Scikit-Learn (sklearn). def parameter search(gamma list ,Xtr,ytr,Xts,yts ,...): """ Parameters gamma list: A list of RBF kernel parameter gamma to search for Xtr: Training data, shape (ntr,nrow,ncol) ytr: Training labels, shape (ntr,) Xts: Test data, shape (nts,nrow,ncol) yts: Test labels, shape (nts,) ... Add other parameters as needed Returns: gamma optimum: The gamma with minimum error on Xts, yts """ ... return gamma optimum

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