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ECON2020 Inflation Assignment
Creation date：2024-05-24 15:36:17
Belonging category：经济Economics
Inflation Assignment

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ECON2020 Assignment 1

Instructions
Assessment Task Inflation Report
Group or Individual Individual
Weighting 20% of course (100 marks re-weighted to 20%)
Word Limit 1500 words (+100 words buffer), excluding cover sheet and reference list
Due Date 21 April, 4 pm
Marking Rubric Blackboard > Assessments > Assignment 1 > Marking Rubic
Submission Submit your assignment as a Word document on Turnitin.
The Turnitin link can be found in:
Blackboard > Assessments > Assignment 1
Academic Integrity UQ has strict rules against academic misconduct, including cheating,
plagiarism, colluding and solicitation. You are responsible for maintaining
the highest standards of academic integrity in your work. Please read and
familiarise yourself with these rules:
PPL 3.60.01 Student Code of Conduct
PPL 3.60.04 Student Integrity and Misconduct

In 2022, Australia experienced CPI inflation of 7.8% p.a., much higher than the Reserve Bank of
Australia’s (RBA) inflation target of between 2 to 3%, and far exceeding 2020’s 0.9% CPI inflation.
Your main task in this assignment is to explain the domestic factors contributing to the high rate of
inflation experienced in 2022, with the IS-LM and AD-AS models.
You will also need to evaluate the impact on of monetary and fiscal policies implemented in 2022.
Given that the course material (up to Topic 6) assumed a closed economy, you may make the same
simplifying assumption that Australia is a closed economy, especially for the main part of the
assignment. This is why you only need to consider domestic factors in this assignment.
In the final part of the of assignment, you will need to evaluate whether inflation experienced in the
Australian economy in 2022 can be attributed solely to domestic factors.
[Instructions Continues On Next Page]
3
Research Essay Structure
Please note:
• You must use the essay template on Blackboard > Assessment > Assignment 1 > Template
• You must include the cover page (in the template) in your submission. Do not write your
answer on the cover page.
Formatting Requirements:
• Font: Arial or Calibri
• Font Size: 11
• Line Space: 1.5
Word Count:
• 1500 words + 100 words buffer
o Penalties apply for word count >1500 words.
• Word count limit does not include:
o Coversheet
o Bibliography (Reference List)
o Section Headings
o Figures, including Figure headings and short notes underneath figures
(e.g. Source: RBA (2021)
Referencing Style: APA 7th Referencing Style
• Direct quotes or paraphrased quotes must be referenced.
• Quotes cannot exceed 10% of the word count.
Figures
• You can include up to six (6) figures (diagrams, graphs or tables) in this assignment.
o You can use a mixture of diagrams, graphs or tables, so long as the total number is
no more than six.
• You can combine two or more diagrams into a single figure if doing so makes sense, or if
such combinations have appeared in the teaching material.
o For example the combination of IS-LM and AD-AS diagrams in Lecture 4 Slide 49.
• You can use more than one variable in a graph of table – but please keep the number of
variables limited with an eye to legibility,
o No extra marks will be provided for irrelevant information.
• You must produce your own figures from data.
o You must keep a copy of your data file/spreadsheet for verification.
• Copied figures will be penalised.
Similarity Report
• Your essay should have a Turnitin similarity index value of 15% or less.
• Penalties may apply for similarity index values >15%.
• Please refer to this link for more information on the Turnitin similarity report.
[Instructions Continues On Next Page]
4
Penalties
Late Submission:
• 4PM 21 April is the submission deadline.
o You should to start the uploading process at least 30 minutes before the deadline
(i.e. at 3:30PM) to ensure that your assignment is successfully uploaded by the
deadline.
• When an extension has not been previously approved, a penalty of 10 marks (out of 100) will
be deducted for every 24-hour block (up to 7 calendar days, after which no marks will be
awarded for a submission).
o 10 marks penalty if submitted within 24 hours after the deadline.
(i.e. 4:01PM 21 April to 4:00PM 22 April)
o 20 marks penalty if submitted between 24 and 48 hours after the deadline.
(i.e. 4:01PM 22 April to 4:00PM 23 April)
o …
o After 168 hours (7×24 hours) after the deadline, 0 marks will be recorded.
(i.e. after 4:00PM 22 April)
High TurnItIn Similarity Index:
• 15%-20%: as much as 5 marks (out of 100) may be deducted.
• 20%-25%: as much as 10 marks (out of 100) may be deducted.
• >25%: as much as 100 marks (out of 100) may be deducted.
• Besides marks deducted, cases of suspected plagiarism will be reported to the School’s
Integrity Officer for investigation, in accordance with the school’s plagiarism policy.
• Please refer to this link for the UQ School of Economics’ plagiarism policy.
• Similarity index values change slightly over time as Turnitin continuously add new materials
into its database, e.g., as more students have submitted their assignments. The best strategy
is to keep your similarity index value sufficiently low, e.g., below 12, so that even though it
goes up a little bit after submission it will not exceed 15.
• Turnitin will ignore a small amount of unavoidable similarity (e.g., commonly used terms).
• Turnitin will not include references in its similar score calculation.
Copying Figures
• For each copied figure (diagrams, graphs, or tables): 15 marks (out of 100) will be deducted.
o The penalty applies even if references are provided for the copied figures.
• Besides marks deducted, cases of suspected plagiarism will be reported to the School’s
Integrity Officer for investigation, in accordance with the school’s plagiarism policy.
Exceeding Word Count Limit (>1600 words)
• 100 words was allocated as a buffer to the 1500 word limit.
• 5 marks for every 50 words exceeding 1600 words.
o E.g. 5 mark penalty for 1602 words, 10 mark penalty for 1651 words.
• No marks deducted for <1200 words.
[Instructions Continues On Next Page]
5
Report Structure
Your task for this assignment is to identify the domestic factors resulting in the high rate of inflation
experience in Australia for 2022. Your analysis will need to cover the points as detailed in the 3
(three) parts below:
Part 1: Describe pattern of Australian macroeconomic performance
(~500 words)
a) Concisely describe the pattern of macroeconomic performance observed in Australia between
January 2019 to December 2022. You should cover (at least) real GDP per capita growth, the
unemployment rate and the CPI inflation rate over this period.
b) Use the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic (and subsequent moderation of its effects) to explain
the pattern of macroeconomic performance described above.
− You should consider when the COVID-19 pandemic started in Australia, and the
pandemic’s effect began to moderate.
− The chronology of COVID related social distancing measures and case load numbers will
also be useful in your analysis.
c) Explain why the high rate of Australian inflation observed in 2022 can be at least partially
attributed to changes of Australian aggregate demand.
− Justify your explanation with the pattern of macroeconomic performance observed.
− You should use the AD-AS model in this part of the analysis. I.e. is the pattern of
macroeconomic variables consistent with a shift of aggregate demand? Did aggregate
demand increase or decrease? And so on.
• You can use the upward sloping short-run aggregate supply curve (as taught in
introductory macroeconomics courses) in the AD-AS analysis for this assignment.
Note: All factual claims should be supported by a reference. (E.g. if you mention that Australia
imposed restrictions on international travelers in March 2020, then you need to cite a reference
that supports this claim.)
[Instructions Continues On Next Page]
Tips:
• The graphs in this “Chart Pack” (link) from the RBA might be useful in formulating your
response to Part 1 (i.e., to identify the important trends in the macroeconomic data).
• But you cannot copy-and-paste the chart pack graphs directly in your assignment.
• Please be reminded that you must create your own graphs or tables. To do so, you will
need to obtain the “raw” macroeconomic data from the ABS. (More information
provided below.)
• You might need to use an AD-AS diagram for Part 1 c).
• The suggested word count (i.e. ~500 words) is a recommendation, but not compulsory.
Feel free to allocated words between the different parts of the assignment if you think
doing so will improve the overall quality of your assignment.
6

Part 2: Explain how domestic private sector factors contributed to high 2022 inflation
(~600 words)
a) Discuss some of the domestic private sector factors (i.e., domestic factors excluding changes to
fiscal or monetary policy) that have contributed to the change in Australian aggregate demand
identified in Part 1.
− E.g. changes to consumer confidence, business confidence, financial market sentiment etc.
− You will need to substantiate your discussion with suitable references. For example, if you
state that an increase in consumer confidence has increased marginal propensity to
consume, then you need to substantiate this claim with data on consumer spending (e.g. by
citing data on household saving rates).

b) Using the IS-LM and AD-AS models, provide a detailed explanation of how these domestic
factors results in changes to Australian aggregate demand, and consequently resulted in the
acceleration of the inflation rate observed in 2022.


[Instructions Continues On Next Page]

Tips:
• Might be useful to review Tutorials 2 to 4 for this section.
• Changes to consumer confidence may change marginal propensity to consume, changes
to business confidence might be due to changes in expected future economic growth
and changes to financial market sentiment might change demand for financial assets.
• For Part 2 b), it will be useful to recall how we derived the aggregate demand curve from
the IS-LM model.
• Appropriate IS-LM and AD-AS diagrams will be useful in presenting your analysis.
7

Part 3: Analyse the impact of fiscal and monetary policies on 2022 Australian inflation
(~400 words)
a) Outline the key fiscal and monetary policies implemented in 2022.

b) With the IS-LM and AD-AS models, provide a detailed analysis whether monetary policy in 2022
moderated or contributed to inflation in the same year. Do the same for fiscal policy.

c) Your analysis should provide a detailed description of how exactly fiscal and monetary policy
affected the economy.


[Instructions Continues On Next Page]

Tips:
• You must provide references for the policies discussed, from primary sources (e.g. the
RBA or the Australian government).
• The Australian federal budget contains many line items. You should focus on 2 or 3
major policies that you think have the biggest impact on inflation.
• The Australian financial year runs from July of one year to June of the next. For example,
2022-2023 or 2022-2023. The Australian government budget follows the same financial
year schedule.
o For example, for financial year 2021-2022, the Australian federal budget is
handed down in May 2021, and relates to government spending and taxation
for the period starting 1 July 2021 and ending 30 June 2022. Wikipedia provides
a quick overview of this process (link).
• The RBA announces its monetary policy decisions the first Tuesday of each month (with
the exception of January).
8

[Instructions Continues On Next Page]
Data Sources and Requirements
Your primary data sources should be:
a) National Agencies, such as the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), the Reserve Bank of
Australia (RBA), the Australian Department of Health and Aging.
b) Multinational agencies, such as the World Bank, the United Nations, the World Health
Organisation (WHO).
Data from secondary sources can be used as a supplement only if it is not available from primary
sources. Use of data from non-primary sources can lead to loss of marks when primary source
data is available.
• Given that 2022 Australian economic data is not available on World Bank’s WDI
database, you will need to obtain the macroeconomic data for your analysis from the
Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). You can easily access Australian macroeconomic
data (including data for 2022) from the ABS Data Explorer.
(https://explore.data.abs.gov.au/)
• COVID cases and deaths data as well as vaccination data is available from the WHO.
(https://covid19.who.int/data)
• The IMF COVID-19 Policy Tracker (link) provides a good summary of COVID related
policies. However, the IMF policy tracker was last updated in July 2021.
• For COVID-related public health related policy changes occurring after July 2021, you
may consider using secondary data sources such as news reports, but only from reliable
news outlets. Some examples of reliable news outlets:
o The Australian newspaper
o Australian Broadcasting Corporation
o The Guardian newspaper
o The Conversation website
o The Age newspaper
o Sydney Morning Herald newspaper
• However, fiscal and monetary policies must be referenced with primary sources
o RBA website for monetary policy (link).
o Australian government budget webpage for fiscal policies (link).
9
Submission
• Your essay must be submitted as a Microsoft Word document through Turnitin on
Blackboard to check for plagiarism. While most instances of plagiarism are unintentional
(e.g., forgetting to close a quotation mark), the originality report will reveal any form of
plagiarism (intentional or unintentional).
• Your essay should have a similarity index value of 15% or less. From the originality
report, the marker will check whether any part of your essay is potentially plagiarised
from other sources. Therefore, you should carefully review the originality report before
your final submission.

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COMSM0093 COMP281 AFM 333 IBUS1001 CP2501 Math 105A VE320 TEC101 SOCY2166 COM240 EFIM20033 ENGI4467 EFIM20034 EC 979 BE432 7EJ502 CSSE6400 COMP90025 Econ 312 ENG2031 ECO0006 EXERSCI 207 CAN209 ECO 137W FT312 ECO 2199 MATH32052 BDW4213 APS 360 SAS 6 CHME0017 PO92Q Economics 01AV MATH39512 MATH 5486 COMP8620 ISE102 ECON235 ECON 206 FI 345 PHAY0020 MATH0099 MATH0085 EFB106 PHY 134 MAE115 circuits Chemistry CSE12 MATH-UA 233 PHAS0038 COMP2140 CONMGNT 7049 COMP151101 ECON 485 ACX5903 ENGN6536 ARCH1162 Law PHAS0042 CCF1C03 MATH 351 Phys 139 AG942 MGT001371 APH106 ECON1051 MA4AM MA3Z7 NUMBER THEORY REST0006 SESS0026 STAT0023 TABL 2741 CMP4008Y EFIM10015 Acct 560 PSYC735 GEOG 5 ACCT3104 CSEC5616 PHIL1012 ITLS6111 ECON8022 5CCM226A compX123 MA4XJ R001 EWB LLP120 COMP643 ENG 103 ECON 23950 ACCT 207 FINC 616 Bio99 Math 137A Psychology BCPM0054 MATH20212 EC3450 CENV6141 PSY 205 CE335 CS365 Calculus ACSD INFT6800 MCIT INFO6030 PHYS 111LV H63EEJ ECON2151 ENGI 2181 MTRX1701 PLIT08009 CS240 Math 270 CMP7000A CMP-7038B Math 263 LAW3016 CS371 STAT 334 FIN0008 ACC3004 STAT 371 ​COMP1921 MTH201 ACCT2000 UN3412 CIV6000 MATHS 3021 MATE7014 ECON1 CIBC6035 LAW121G COMM 321 CSC8204R TTM2033 CSCI 2600 MAE 115 LNG302 CENV6175W1 ECON30019 CPS2015 BST969 DDES9015 AMATH242 CS 1151 N1592 ACCT600 EG503G SMM519 EC318 Ecstatistics EEE 471 MARK2051 Topology COM00037H ACCT3000 MTHM501 EG501V COM00055H BUSN9085 GGR273 MATH 2B ITD102 MA214 ECON0060 ECE3114 ECMM447 Mechanics CCT361H5S BSAN3210 WELF2001 Fin3001 RESP5001 STA 137 Linguistics 101 CSCI368 CMPSC497 LUBS3655 OMBA 5355 BUSM2562 ​BFF5902 CYBR7001 CULT2005 ECON 7720 MTRX3760 FSE598 ​LUE1001 MGSC 7100 CS3240 COSC7500 ACCT3091 INFOGR TRAN 2080 DESIGN CIVE215001 CIVE2360 CPSC 8430 FNCE2003 Stoichiometry INFS6023 Quantitative Method Math 21D ECE5179 Design ​ECON8022 Chemical DMS 213 ADM1370 BFF5902 BFF2701 AGRI10051 AMN400 ECON7322 ​FINC5090 ​MATH1052 ​SciComp Elec4622 ​FINS5516 ENG 101 MMM143 CS431CA2 BSAN2201 EBSC7070 ES9v9-10 PLIN0009 DATA 8 MATH 101 BCPM0097 ​MAT 237 BISM2201 EEE8099 Physics 11 ECE2238B Biostat 234 ​ECON30009 INF10025 CHEM252 CCMA4008 CIVE 3007 STAT0031 ELEC ENG 3108 MGMT90140 CHEM 252 STAT3016 MMM095 ​MMGT6016 Legal STAT 311 ELEC9764 COMP 370 TCS 3053 EECS 1021 FIT1051 C/C++ EE3C COMP2003J COM398 COMP51915 Simulator FIN42330 8PRO102 PGD ELEC5160 XJCO1921 COMP5123M INFS 2042 CHE1148H ECA5313 IN3329 Microsoft Modeling B15 2TT COMP3687 COMP2432 DMS2030 KAN4TSF CFKG CSE 5322 CSE 445 STATS 3DA3 CHC5223 COMP1048 EL3105 EECS 3221 CS231 ME 4434 ITP4510 ITP4501 CSCI 5708 Controller EECE 5699 CPEN 231L CPN programs CSC8016 MATU9D2 ENGN4213 2. SVM. (10 points) Consider an SVM classifier using RBF kernel, and finish the following python code to search for the optimum kernel parameter γ. You are required to calculate the RBF function and search yourself, instead of using functions in Scikit-Learn (sklearn). def parameter search(gamma list ,Xtr,ytr,Xts,yts ,...): """ Parameters gamma list: A list of RBF kernel parameter gamma to search for Xtr: Training data, shape (ntr,nrow,ncol) ytr: Training labels, shape (ntr,) Xts: Test data, shape (nts,nrow,ncol) yts: Test labels, shape (nts,) ... Add other parameters as needed Returns: gamma optimum: The gamma with minimum error on Xts, yts """ ... return gamma optimum
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