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ECOS3007 International Macroeconomics

Creation date：2024-05-16 17:34:58

Belonging category：经济Economics

Tag ECOS3007

International Macroeconomics

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ECOS3007 International Macroeconomics
Time Allowed: 2 Hours
Reading Time: 10 Mins
Total pages: 5 (including the cover page)
Instructions
1. This is an open book exam. There are 4 questions with 100 total points. The question
le should consist of 5 pages, including the cover page.
2. Answer ALL questions. Each question will have a certain number of points awarded.
3. Handwrite or type your answers clearly on plain white papers, A4 size. Please read the
questions carefully before writing your answer. You may combine mathematics, hand-
drawn gures or graphs, and explanations in words. Write neatly and concisely. No
bonus point will be awarded for extra answer answer the questions just as needed,
but with su¢ cient analysis to justify your answer.
4. You have 120 minutes (2 hours) to write your responses and an extra 30 minutes
to scan/photograph and upload your pages as ONE FILE in PDF, DOC, or JPG
(image) format. PleaseWRITE YOUR STUDENT ID NUMBER on the top of
the front (rst) page of your submission le. No submissions will be accepted
after the specied end time of the upload time. Submissions sent by email
will NOT be accepted at any time.
Good luck!
1
1. [30 points] Indicate whether each of the following statements is true, false, or uncer-
tain. Provide an explanation (using words, diagram, etc.) for your answer. Marks are
awarded for explanation only. A correct true, false, or uncertain designation with an
incorrect explanation will receive zero mark.
(a) The 2007-2008 global nancial crisis would have had a larger negative impact on
the Australian economy if (i) Australian banks were large holders of U.S. asset-
backed securities, and (ii) the Reserve Bank of Australia were operating under a
(fully-credible) xed exchange regime, with the Australian dollar pegged to the
US dollar. [10 points]
(b) In the standard real business cycle (RBC) model discussed in class, one of the
householdsoptimality condition is

(1Nt) =
1
ct
wt
where Nt is amount of labor supply, ct is consumption, wt is real wage, and is
a scale parameter. Under the above condition, given wage wt, households could
increase their consumption, and hence, their utility, by increasing their labor
supply. [10 points]
(c) Within the extended DD-AA model with pandemic shocks discussed in class, the
e¤ectiveness of a given scal policy stimulus in response to a negative output
shock ("y < 0) would be lower if (i) the savings rate s is lower, and (ii) the
responsiveness of current account on exchange rate uctuations (the parameter
a) is higher. [10 points]
2
2. [15 points] The following impulse-response gure depicts the e¤ect of an expan-
sionary monetary policy within a quantitative open-economy DSGE model (under a
oating exchange rate regime). Discuss how and why these impulse responses are
consistent/inconsistent with the e¤ect of an expansionary monetary policy (increase in
money supply M s) under the standard qualitative DD-AA model, discussed in Topics
2-5 in ECOS3007?
Figure 1:

%
d
ev
%
d
ev
%
d
ev
%
d
ev
3
3. [28 points] Consider the extended DD-AA model with credit markets discussed in
Topic 7. The following equations for the domestic (U.S.) economy apply
Y = C + I + G+ CA
C C(Y T;Rd; "h)
I I(Rb)
CA = CA(E; Y T; Y )
M s
P
= L(R; Y )
R = R +
Ee E
E
The deposit and loan rates evolve as
Rd = (R)
Rb = 1(R
d) + 2(K
B)
NOTE: these equations, the denition of variables, and all the underlying assumptions
(e.g. @ =@R > 0) are identical to those discussed in class (unless otherwise notied).
Assume a "short-run" analysis throughout.
(a) Using the DD-AA diagram and in words, describe the e¤ects of a credit crunch
scenario, i.e. a sudden destruction of bank capital (decrease in KB). Assume
that there is no monetary and scal policy response (M s and G stay constant).
[8 points]
(b) Describe how, in theory, monetary policy could be used to prevent a decrease in
output Y (i.e. to maintain the same level of output as before the credit crunch).
What happen to C, I, E, CA, R, Rd, and Rb after this monetary policy response?
[12 points]
Now, lets suppose that when the credit crunch occurs, the economy was already
in a liquidity trap where the nominal policy rate was at its zero lower bound
(R = 0).
(c) Within the model above, describe how forward guidance, i.e. central banks in-
uence on expected exchange rate Ee, could be used to prevent a decrease in
Y ? What happen to C, I, E, CA, R, Rd, and Rb after this (successful) forward
guidance, compared to your answer in part (b)? [8 points]
4
4. [27 points] Consider the DD-AA model with pandemic shocks discussed in Topic 8:
Y = C + I +G+ CA+ h"y
C = (1 s)Y
CA = aE mY
Ms
P
= L(R; Y )
R = R +
Ee E
E
+ "R
The denition of variables and all the underlying assumptions are identical to those
discussed in class (unless otherwise notied). Assume a "short-run" analysis through-
out. Suppose that the pandemic shocks are represented by a negative output shock
("y < 0) AND a positive exchange rate risk-premium shock ("R > 0) to the economy.
(a) Assuming that there is no monetary and scal policy response, describe the e¤ects
of these pandemic shocks to the economy (using the DD-AA diagram or/and in
words). Note: assume that the combined e¤ect is such that there is a decrease in
output (Y #). [7 points]
(b) Now suppose that the central bank is operating under a xed exchange rate
regime the xed, constant exchange rate target level is E = E. Assume that
the regime is always credible, i.e. Ee = E = E, irrespective of the pandemic
shocks, and the foreign central bank keeps their nominal policy rate constant (R
is unchanged, even with the pandemic shocks). Under this regime, describe the
e¤ects of the pandemic shocks (note: still assume that there is no scal policy
response). Does the decrease in output larger or smaller compared to that in part
(a)? Explain why. [12 points]
(c) If an expansionary scal policy, i.e. an increase in G, is used to prop up the
economy, is the necessary amount of scal stimulus larger or smaller under a
credible xed exchange rate regime (compared to that under a oating regime)?
Justify your answer. [8 points]

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FE 825 IERG 5130 STAT 8178 EE161 ADS2 G54FUZ CS326 113B ECN 226 QBUS6860 ELEC3202 COMP9334 MGT11B MET CS 777 STA238 00099F Python SMM306 CMT206 EC116 SP MAST90084 CS480/680 BCPM0091 CMPT 300 ECON2209 FY20 STAT 432 CVEN9625 MATH1712 CMP9771M CMP3750M CIS 325 AI506 MAT344H1S MGT7180 PSTAT 160B CSYS5010 1D STAT 453/558 ME152B STA304H1F CSCI-128 ME428 CO3002 FINE 7640 COMP3234 ECSE 223 EE497 – 3D MATH5905 ECS648U ENG5009 MATH10242 EC665 A CPI221 ISOM5220 MACE40402 MGT B456F COMP9315 AFM 113 STAT 778 CS 564 MA231 CS 230 CS 124 COMP5511 CSC317 ITEC1010 ELEC207 INFT 3019 7CCMFM06 EE 161 5G ECLT5810 MATH 7349 CS526 O2 COMP90054 ELE00063M ACCT5034 ARC1015 CSCI 40 CSCI E40 FIN 524B CS 462 389COM CMT309 MFIN703 COMP4250 STA304 STA304H1S STA 1003 FIN 448 BUFN 732 CS520 CVEN3701 ECMT6006 PHAS0100 CSIT314 MDIA 5028 CSCI 2134 MAT 451 CMPT 459 STAT 457 INFO20003 COMP4141 IELE8066 F540 ECM9 CSE 6321 FIN 430 MATH3911 BFC5916 COMP1011 EEE 6209 STATS 240 CW3 COMP206 COMP1003 4331W ISE 530 CMPT 295 MATH 239 QF5203 INFR08010 IT114105 FIT2093 ECON3124 ECON1195 MATH 337 STAT 3006 COMP202 COMP3130 MATH3609 COMP 250 CS6140 IEEE ELE00041I FIN40090 CIV 5899 MATH3066 IGNMENT MATH 2009 STAT3405 HIST 101 MATH 3281 CEGE0042 ICT532 LAB 7 LAB 5 MCO455 CSIT214 Q4 IFB104 A1 ECO220Y5Y DA5020 CMPSC473 FIN9007 DSCI553 MSCI534 COMP3308 CSE-112 CMPT 310 EE104 F 2C P20 ALY2010 BUSM060 STA258 ECO00030M R BIOSTAT 274 COS6012-B FIT3155 CMPUT 340 EC421 INFS4205 ECOM135 NATS 1740 COMP809 MBE 6005 STA465 CSSE2310 CIVL2700 DATA4700 CMPSC 473 ISE 529 CS5044 MAST30020 COMP2207 ENGG1001 COMP0046 FIT3165 STAT GR5241 MECH0007 vATHK1001 ANALYTIC ATHK1001 MATH352001 HW3 S1 BMAN 24662 COMP 636 Stat-461 STAT 302 STAT 2132 STAR534 ENG4137 CMP3752M CS3103 BISM3222 STA 135 ME155A IIMT3601 ECON3371 ECON 3371 HW4 FINA 5840 DT211C CTEC3902 MAT005 MATH2148 S261F Econ 332 MATH3734 MIS41270 7CCMFM13 SYST 664 CIS434 CENG10014 MT4111 MT4527 ECMM424 CMT219 Math 136 MATH 3120 COMP10002 MAST20009 MATH0058 BEEM117 ISYE 6420 MGMTMFE 405 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COMP532 MAS275 COMP5318 COMP4002 FIT5086 MAST20004 FIT3152 FIT5129 CIS2380 CS521 COMP 1005 EECMS CITS5501 ECE 462 ECON 6002 ENG 4051 CSC 648 CMT654 MECHENG 713 PHYS1002 AMME 2000 FP0060 DDES3200 MECHENG 743 BINF90002 FIT2081 ISYS90081 ELECTENG 722 BUS 360 ECOS3010 BUS2810 ETF2100 ENG2048 STAT5002 COMP2017 CEME 2003 MATS3004 COMP9319 PHYS1001 COMP5349 AMME2261 COMP-381 FIT3173 COSC2757 ENG4025 QBUS2820 COMP9414 MATH2021 EOSC118 MFIN6690 PMATH 321 CSE-141L MATH575A COMPSCI5002 COMP1511 management comp2123 FINS3616 COMP 3331 COMS30034 DTSC 71 AcF 702 AcF702 DTSC71 MAT021 ELE8083 ACFI213 EG-127J 127J FIT5163 FIT2001 ELE00113M CMT310 CS 245 ENGL 1101 MTH6115 EE497 CS 325 Math 124A MTH5130 MBA502 MGT 5380 ARCH 1261 F033800 20LLP109 ELE4009 FINANCIAL COMP3331 Computer ECE4179 20T3 COMP9311 COMP9311 UNSW MFIN6210 ACCT 5930 EE590 ENG2029 ECO100 SIT315 ACCT3610 COMP3600 STK2100 FIT2004 COMP30020 ACTL1101 Stat 101B BANA 200 COSC2473 ENGG1400 AI COMP90043 MMF 1914H PHYS 127 CS584 CIVL2010 ECMT2150 CS 333 CP1406 KIT308 Economics 701 ECON3740 ECE 5759 BFC3340 FINC2012 COMP4500 MATH3871 FIT3080 18-819C Economic ECO202Y5Y PHY100 FINC-780 Econ 100B EC602 IE582 EE450 COMP9517 WRDS 150B ECON 570 LECTURE 2 ECA5101 ECE 4420 ADAD9311 FIT3031 CS 544 MF 703 CS 6140 KIT501 ENGSCI 344 CSC171 IE 332 FINM8007 21S2 COSC 1114 FE545 E471 SIT102 CSC108 MAT301 IAE 101 COP3503 STAT2004 EC 303 CS1026 STAT1203 MATH3171 ISOM5160 IFN657 FIT2014 ACCT2102 DSCI550 STATS 330 ELEC421 COMP3670 QBUS6840 MEES:698B MAST30027 MIET1077 Economics IFT 6758 FIT5122 BUSN5101 CptS 111 HRMT5502 Math2018 PP 312 INFS3200 CZ3005 CSSE1001 SENG 2011 MKTG 553Q BUFN 640 COMP507 ETF5952 DATA 311 ECE4043 BANK3011 finance M3H623544 HW1 INFS 7410 AI6103 STAT3888 INFS3208 ACCT7103 ECOS3013 PSYCH 20B F79MA STAT3006 ENGG952 2X MGSC 7000 ECE4132 MSF 526 MATH 3033 CDS 511 EEEE4120 EEET2465 ECA5103 MATH2070 ELEC3104 BU51019 EEE8147 ENGR20003 COSC 1107 ETF3200 FNCE 435 MSFI 435 ISyE6420 GENG4405 HW ETC5523 IE 7315 MOEC0021 STA 106 ENGG 1300A ENGG 1300 OLET1139 STAT 3503 STAT 206 FEM11149 ELEN 4720 COMP20003 SOLA1070 CS574 C11CS LINB29H3 MAST90083 ECON7200 STAT 610 LINB29 DSM-5 COMP3161 EEEN40010 MATH 4431 K353 STA 3386 IERG4300 COMS W4167 ENG5298 AMME 2302 CS3910 COMPSCI 320 STATS 369 GR5242 COSC 328 CSCI435 MGTS1301 INFS2200 COMP3900 CIS 375 Module AE03 COMP3121 CS260 HAM503 MGMT5050 INT3075 COSC 285 GEOL0029 GEGE2X01 STAT1201 MATH1061 MMF1941H STAT 5060 CS 520 COMP 4320 MSIN0104 000T FINS3648 ECMT2160 ECON4003 Phys 129L CSE 142 CS 3130 MGEB01 EECS 340 Finance (20443/20444) ECMM149 COMP5310 EEEN60180 CSC 111 AT2 CSCI 4430 STAB57 MA/CSC 427 MATH322 D100 CSCI544 CITS3004 CI6227 CSE 565 APCO 1P01 852L1 ELEC S411F COMP3207 STATS330 ECON7530 FIT5149 CSI4104 CMPT 371 COMP201 SEHS4696 FI4003 MATH6182 CG1 WS MATH401 MGT 205 QTM 110 COMP 0137 MACE12201 FIT5210 ECE 544 BISM7206 HUDM 6055 ECON3203 STATS 210 MSCI 570 MATH6173 COMPSCI4039 Accounting COM3503 AOE2024 ECON213 PSYC10004 Control Data 100/200A PHIL2617 PHYS3116 MIE250 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ATMS 201 COMP3425 MATH7861 SOLA2060 MA 325 7CCEMCTH ECON 432 INFT2051 SOLA 2060 ECOS2002 Stats141XP BIOA02H3 S2022 MA4601 K5 COMP5329 EG 284 IB3A70 WECO1020 COMP3027 Energy ACS61011 MAST20026 STAT 533 MATA31 ENVS257 BEM2031 EC 486 COMP0172 CS3214 EECE5644 IB2B20 COSC2536 COSC1147 COMP6214 5CCM242A COMP0130 AMME2000 MTMG50: EG238 ACF6006 QBUS2810 COSC2391 ECON7560 MATH377 STA305 CS 486 COMP1117B EL648 ELEC3909 ECON 241 COMP 4901W BUSI4428 ENEN20002 ENGN4524 ELEC3115 CSC 413 PSYC 100B ECON1002 MATH256 ANSC20005 MTHS2008 MATH40082 COSC 2406 FIT3174 STA 238 CMT202 Differential Equations MTHM017 GARCH 101 MATH2069 CSC336S ACSC12 ETF2121 CEME 2001 DB B474F ARHT1001 EECS 3311 3220 STATS 786 CS 484 COMP20008 MATH4091 ECE 455 CSCI 204 BUS B200F BA 875 BU5562 COSC 1147 X11 GEOG 101 IMM250F CSE 584A MATH38172 LAB 4 ELEC5882M FINS5523 EE 430 COMP 465 6CCS3PRE 7CCSMNSE FINANCE ACMB02H3 ENGG2112 ELEC5616 SCM B371 CHEM3120 CS22 ECMT2130 MAST30011 ADSPBF706 CENG0013 ACCOUNTING BUSS1040 CHEM 181 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SVM. (10 points) Consider an SVM classifier using RBF kernel, and finish the following python code to search for the optimum kernel parameter γ. You are required to calculate the RBF function and search yourself, instead of using functions in Scikit-Learn (sklearn). def parameter search(gamma list ,Xtr,ytr,Xts,yts ,...): """ Parameters gamma list: A list of RBF kernel parameter gamma to search for Xtr: Training data, shape (ntr,nrow,ncol) ytr: Training labels, shape (ntr,) Xts: Test data, shape (nts,nrow,ncol) yts: Test labels, shape (nts,) ... Add other parameters as needed Returns: gamma optimum: The gamma with minimum error on Xts, yts """ ... return gamma optimum

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