MAN3080 Risk of financial distress
Risk of financial distress
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MAN3080
Question 1
(a)
Debt
GBP million
Equity
GBP million
D/D+E
Book values 1000 780 56%
Market values 1080
(= 200+800 x110/100)
1200
(= 300 x 4.00)
47%
[Total 6]
(b)
A book gearing of 56% appears to be too high and the market based gearing figure of 47% is
only slightly better so it does seem that the company is likely to experience problems in the
future due to this position.
Benefits of high gearing to raise in discussion:
Higher EpS, therefore greater returns to shareholders
Higher company and share value (refer to MM propositions with and without tax)
Up to a limit – explain static theory, with theoretical optimal maximum gearing level
Drawbacks of high gearing
Risk of financial distress, insolvency,
Greater risk in times of stressed business environment (e.g. Covid pandemic)
Risk of fall in credit rating and/or re-financing problems
Lack of confidence of suppliers, markets pr other stakeholders
Lack of flexibility to pursue future business opportunities requiring new finance.
Diverts management time to managing the liquidity and funding position rather than
on the business itself and value-creation opportunities.
Best practice and case studies
[Total 14 max]
(c)
Amount to raise: 50% x £800m x 110/10 = £440 million
Number of
shares
Total value Price per share
Before rights issue 300m £1200m £4.00
New issue 150m
=300m/2
£440m £2.93 (= £440/150)
After rights issue 450m £1640m £3.64 (= £1640/450)
[Total 7 max]
1
MAN3080 21-22 exam Jan22 ANSWERS
(d)
Workings: To calculate profit after tax (PAT) after the rights issue and debt buy-back:
Interest is lower by 4% x 800 x 50% = £16m
Impact after tax is a reduction in PAT of £16m (1 - 0.80) = £12.8m
So PAT after the rights issue and debt buy-back is £119m + £12.8m = £131.8m
Earnings Number of
shares
Earnings per share
Before rights issue/debt
buy back
£119m 300m £0.397
After rights issue/debt
buy-back
£131.8m 450m £0.293
This is a fall of 26% (= (0.397 – 0.293) / 0.397), which is highly material.
EpS is a key measure that is followed by analysts and shareholders and is used as a measure
of value-added to shareholders.
This significant fall is therefore likely to be unpopular and lead to a large fall in the share
price , unless the impact on returns is welcomed in return for a large reduction in risk.
[Total 11 max]
(e)
Need to arrive at EpS of £0.357 (= 0.397 x 0.90)
Total earnings are £131.8, so need to end up with 367m shares ( = 131.8m / 0.359)
That is, only issue 67m new shares
At a price of £6.57 each (= £440m/67m)
This is clearly not feasible given that the shares are only trading at £4.00 each at the
moment. No-one will be willing to pay £6.57 for new shares if they can buy additional shares
in the market at £4.00.
[Total 7 max]
(f)
Ethical:
Confidentiality - Unpublished information of a price sensitive nature should remain
confidential, not be disclosed. Code of ethics: ‘respect the confidentiality of information
acquired as a result of professional and business relationships’.
Professional behaviour. Code of ethics: ‘to comply with relevant laws and regulations and
avoid conduct that the professional accountant knows or should know might discredit the
profession.
Objectivity/conflict of interest is also relevant
Legal:
risk of being accused of insider dealing if either deal yourself or pass on information to
others
[Total 5 max]
2
MAN3080 21-22 exam Jan22 ANSWERS
SECTION B
Question 2
(a)
Arguments in favour of hedging
• Guaranteed EUR price for goods sold/bought
• Reduces volatility of cash flows/earnings
• FX rates can be very volatile
• Lower risk of insolvency
• Reduced risk should lead to lower cost of capital and therefore reduces the risk of
insolvency
• Use figures from the question to illustrate the extent of losses that could be incurred
if orders left unhedged.
Arguments against hedging
• Cost
• Risk may not be material
• Lose benefit of favourable rate movements
• Shareholders can hedge the position themselves and might have purchased shares in
this company in order to obtain such currency exposure as part of a diversified
portfolio
Appropriate strategy
Use forward contracts to fix the price at the point at which a firm order is received.
If a firm price is quoted some time before the order is received, consider using an option
contract to hedge this exposure up to the point when a firm order is received.
[Total 9 max]
(b)
The currency with the higher interest rate is expected to weaken against the currency with
the lower interest rate according to the combination of interest rate parity theory and
expectations theory.
That is, the EUR is expected to weaken against GBP (good news for an exporter such as RED
because they will receive more EUR for each GBP) and strengthen against the USD (bad
news for RED).
[Total 8 marks]
(c)
Order 1:
EURGBP 1 September 2022 = 0.6720 x (1 + 0.01 x 7/12) / (1 + 0.02 x 7/12) = 0.668
EUR value locked in using a forward contract is 5 million / 0.6681 = EUR 7.48 million
Order 2:
EURUSD 1 September 2022 = 1.3010 x (1 + 0.05 x 5/12) / (1 + 0.02 x 5/12) = 1.3171
EUR value locked in using a forward contract is 10 million / 1.3171 = EUR 7.59 million
[Total 8 marks]
3
MAN3080 21-22 exam Jan22 ANSWERS
Question 3
a.
There are 1,000m shares in issue (= $500m / 0.50).
The projects are expected to have a positive NPV of $10m (= $110m - $100m), which is
worth $0.01 per share.
So the share price is expected to increase to $2.21 after the announcement of the project
Shareholder with 100 shares:
Value of shareholding Number
of shares
Share price Cash
received
Before dividend $221 = $2.21 x 100 100 $2.21
After dividend
waived
$221
(no change)
100 $2.21 $0
After scrip
dividend
$221 (no change) 125 $1.768 = $221/125 $0
[5] Dividend irrelevancy theory states that the dividend decision does not affect firm value
and is therefore independent from the investment decision.
It is the investment decision that has caused an increase in the share price, not the
dividend decision.
In this example, the scrip dividend does not change the value of the company and
therefore there is no impact on shareholder wealth, even though the number of
shares in issue has increased.
[Total 13 max]
b.
In practice, dividends provide ‘signalling’ about the future prospects of the company. So
cancelling the dividend altogether is likely to send a bad signal to shareholders and push the
share price down. Psychologically, a scrip dividend feels like a reward and result in a smaller
fall in share price than is indicated by the new theoretical price calculated above.
[Total 5 max]
c
Green finance = green bonds or green loans, where the use of proceeds is for green projects
. The government also provides green loans.
Green projects include improvements to the natural environment, reducing carbon
emissions etc.
Advantages: Cheaper finance. Good publicity. Attract more investors, including more
attractive to fund managers.
[Total 7 max]
4
MAN3080 21-22 exam Jan22 ANSWERS
Question 4
a. Calculations
Where:
and
d1 = [ln(4/3.50) + (0.05+ 0.12^2 / 2) x 3/12] / (0.12^2 x 3/12)^0.5
= (0.13353 + 0.0143) / 0.06 = 2.4638
d2 = 2.4638 – (0.12^2 x 3/12)^0.5 = 2.4638 – 0.06 = 2.4038
So C = 4 x N(2.4638) – 3.50 x e^-0.0125 x N(2.4038)
= 4 x 0.9931 – 3.50 x 0.987578 x 0.9919
= £0.544
Explanation:
The investor could sell the option today for £0.544. The shares are currently trading at
£4.00 and the exercise price of the option is £3.50 and so you might expect the option to
only be worth around £0.50. However, given the high standard deviation of the share price,
there is a probability that the share price rises well above the exercise price of £3.50 in 3
months’ time, making the option slightly more valuable for the holder of the option.
[Total 16 max]
b.
Discussion of use of values for follow-on real options when evaluating project 1 in this
scenario.
Variables given: similar to a call option where:
Premium is the cost of the first project
Exercise price is the cost of the follow-on project at time 3
Asset value is the present value of the cash inflows from the follow-on project at
time 0
Time period is 3 years
Asset volatility needs to be estimated. If these are typical projects that the company
undertakes, the share price volatility could be used as a proxy for the asset volatility.
[Total 9 marks max]