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ECON1002 Fiscal Policy

创建日期：2024-04-29 18:00:32

所属分类：经济Economics

标签： ECON1002

Fiscal Policy

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ECON1002

Introductory Macroeconomics

Lecture 5: Fiscal Policy
In this lecture, we will study
– How taxes and spending affect the economy
– Balanced budget multiplier
– Fiscal policy and income distribution
– Demographic changes and fiscal policy
– Limitations of fiscal policy
– Australia’s budget and the stance of fiscal policy
– Fiscal policy and government debt
Reading: Textbook Ch 8.

Using a tax cut to close a contractionary gap
 Suppose the initial PAE is: PAE = 50 + 0.7Y
What is the equilibrium income? What is the multiplier?
Assume that c = 0.8, current tax rate t = 0.1, and m = 0
What is the new multiplier?
 Consider PAE = 50 + 0.7Y. Suppose consumers are pessimistic
and cut their spending by 10 unit,
PAE = 40 + 0.7Y
 Setting this planned expenditure equal to GDP implies a new
equilibrium at 133.33 and there now exists a contractionary
output gap. What’s the size of output gap?
 Can a tax cut be used to eliminate the output gap?
How much of a tax cut is needed?
Fiscal Policy for Stabilisation

Y
PAE
Y
450
PAE0
133.33 166.67
A fall in exogeneous spending followed by a tax cut
PAE1
PAE2

= + +pPAE C I G
Exogenous Changes and Equilibrium Income
( ) (1 )= − + + + −pPAE C cT I G c t Y
Consider a 3-sector economy (i.e., No X and M and hence m = 0).
1 ( )
1 (1 )
 
= − + + − − 
e pY C cT I G
c t
In terms of changes,
1 ( )
1 (1 )
 
=  − − 
∆ ∆ − ∆ + ∆ + ∆e pY C c T I
c
G
t

What happens if government cuts lump sum taxes,
(i.e., cut in the exogenous component of the tax function, )
and purchases ) by the same amount?
Suppose there is an equal change in government purchases
and net taxes, such that, ∆G = ∆T. Govt budget remains
unchanged.
Balanced Budget Multipliers
T
G

The change in the equilibrium income is
Balanced Budget Multipliers
1 ( )
1 (1 )
 
∆ = − + − − 
∆ ∆eY c
c t
T G
Since ∆G = ∆T,
1 ( )
1 (1 )
 
∆ = − + − − 
∆ ∆eY c
c t
G G
1 (1 )
1 (1 )
 
∆ = − − −
∆

 eY c
c
G
t
1
1 (1 )
 −
∆ =  − −
∆

e GcY
c t
The balanced budget multiplier is
Balanced Budget Multipliers
1
1 (1 )
 ∆ −
=  −∆ − 
eY c
c tG
1 ( )
1 (1 )
 
∆ = ∆ − ∆ + ∆ + ∆ − − 
e pY C c T I G
c t
From
We can see 1 ,
1 (1 )
∆
= ≡
− −∆
e
G
Y k
cG t
,
1 (1 )
∆ −
= ≡
− −∆
e
T
Y c k
c tT
Govt spending multiplier
Tax multiplier
Hence, 1
1 (1 )
 ∆ −
= ≡ = + − − ∆
e
BB G T
Y k
G
c k k
c t

Quiz: What if G and T are both cut by the same amount, $5m?
Exercise: Assume c = 0.8 and t = 0.1.
If G and T both rise by 5, What’s the change in Y?
( )1 0.8(5) (5)
1 0.72
 ∆ = − + − 
eY
( )( )3.57 4 5 3.57∆ = − + =eY
Balanced Budget Multipliers

Y
PAE
Y
450
PAEold
A simultaneous cut in G and T by $5m
(e.g. a baby bonus financed by a cut in G)
PAEnew
The University of Sydney Page 11
In the Keynesian model, fiscal policy affects the demand side (PAE) of the
economy.
But, there are other issues…….
– Fiscal policy can affect the supply side of the economy too
(how?). That is, potential output (y*) can be affected.
– Budget deficits need to be financed somehow. It matters
how budget deficits are financed. S and I can be affected.
A higher government borrowing can ‘crowd out’ private
investment!
– Not always flexible enough for stabilisation (‘inside lag’:
takes time from policy discussion to implementation). May
be inadequate as a short-term stabilisation tool.
Fiscal policy as a stabilisation tool

Fiscal policy is less effective than the above model suggests.
In Australia,
 Fiscal policy has medium term objectives.
 Government follows balanced budget rule.
But, fiscal policy is still an important stabilising force. Why?
 The presence of automatic stabilisers (taxes fall and transfers
rise when GDP falls and vice versa)
 Fiscal policy is better suited when there is a prolonged period
of recession (e.g., the Great Depression, the Lost Decade in
Japan, GFC in 2007-8)
Fiscal policy as a stabilisation tool

 Fiscal policy has distributional consequences.
 Taxation system matters: Progressive, regressive or
flat? GST may improve efficiency but worsens equity.
 Demographic changes affect fiscal policy. Ageing
population and low birth rates affect participation
rate and labour force.
 Who should pay for the elderly and retired? PAYG
(Pay-as-you-go) or Fully funded pension system?
What is the best retirement income support system?
 Australia has The Future Fund

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