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ECON3203 Group Assignment
1 Background
Developing a predictive model for ATM cash demand is an important task for every bank. Sup-
pose that you are employed by a bank, and your task is to optimise the bank’s cash management
by making smarter decisions about reloading its ATM network.
The variable Withdraw in the dataset ATM_training.csv is the total cash amount withdrawn
per day from an ATM, recorded from the ATM network of a bank. The response variable and
covariate variables are described in the following table.
Variable Description
Withdraw The total cash withdrawn a day (in 1000 local currency)
Shops Number of shops/restaurants within a walkable distance (in 100)
ATMs Number of other ATMs within a walkable distance (in 10)
Downtown =1 if the ATM is in downtown, 0 if not
Weekday = 1 if the day is weekday, 0 if not
Center =1 if the ATM is located in a center (shopping, airport, etc), 0 if not
High =1 if the ATM has a high cash demand in the last month, 0 if not
Your task is to develop a model for predicting the cash demand Withdraw based on the covari-
ates.
The test dataset ATM_test.csv (not provided) has the same structure as the training data
ATM_training.csv.
1.1 Test error
For the measure of prediction accuracy, please use mean squared error (MSE), computed on the
test data. Let ŷi be the prediction of yi where yi is the i-th withdraw in the test data. The test error
is computed as follows
Test_error =
1
ntest
∑
yi∈test data
(ŷi − yi)2,
where ntest is the number of observations in the test data.
2 Submission Instructions
1. Each group needs to submit TWO files (or more if necessary) via the Moodle site (to avoid
repeated submissions, one and only one member of your group should be responsible for
submitting).
1
• A document file, named Group_xxx_document.pdf, that reports your data analysis
procedure and results. You should replace the xxx in the file name with your group ID.
• A Python file, named Group_xxx_implementation.ipynb that implements your data
analysis procedure and produces the test error. You might submit additional files that
are needed for your implementation, the names of these files must follow the same
format Group_xxx_.
2. About your document file Group_xxx_document.pdf
• Describe your data analysis procedure in detail: how the Exploratory Data Analysis
(EDA) step is done, what and why models/methods are used, how the models are
trained, etc. with sufficient justifications. The description should be detailed enough so
that other data scientists, who are supposed to have background in your field, under-
stand and are able to implement the task. All the numerical results are reported up to
four decimal places.
• Clearly and appropriately present any relevant graphs and tables.
• The page limit is 20 pages including EVERYTHING: appendix, computer output,
graphs, tables, etc.
3. The Python file is written using Jupyter Notebook, with the assumption that all the necessary
data files (ATM_training.csv and ATM_test.csv) are in the same folder as the Python file.
If you use deep learning models, then please assume that Keras (with Tensorflow backend)
has been installed.