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CED 6983 Business Fluctuations and Economic Forecasting

创建日期：2024-04-07 14:40:29

所属分类：经济Economics

标签： CED 6983

Business Fluctuations and Economic Forecasting

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Course Information

Course Number CED 6983
Course Name Business Fluctuations and Economic Forecasting
CRN 23597

If for any reason you wish to express a concern about anything that may impact your success in a course,
first speak directly with your Instructor. If you need additional support, please contact your Academic
Advisor.

Course Delivery
This course will be delivered using the virtual learning modality and I will be teaching remotely.I will
schedule weekly meetings using a video platform, usually Zoom or Teams, for students who would like to
join me synchronously. There is no requirement to participate synchronously, but at least asynchronous
participation and engagement is required. Students joining synchronously will be able to ask questions,
discuss, and interact with me and other students in real time. I will also be available for virtual office
hours on request by email.

Each student is responsible for their access to the internet for purposes of this course and for research. Internet
access is a required component of this course and will not be accepted as an excuse for missed work. If you
know that you will be traveling, then make sure you plan accordingly.
Note regarding e-mail/voicemail: If you e-mail, please include your name and class title. Please allow up to 48
hours for an email reply. If you leave a voicemail, please remember to include your name, class title, and phone
number.

Course Prerequisites
• none

Course Description
This course provides students with the latest developments and forecasting methods in the analytics of
business fluctuations. The course emphasizes R language as means of economic data analysis and
provide students hands-on opportunities to deepen their understanding of methods of forecasting of
macroeconomic activity. Students are guided through the experiential case studies on macrofinancial
fluctuations from single equation to simultaneous equations systems (exponential smoothing,
forecasting with ARIMA models, Principal Component/Factor Analysis, Random forest analysis, trend /
cycle decomposition, FAVAR, global modelling).

Course Materials
Course Text(s)/Software/Tools
• Students are required to access Northeastern Canvas at http://canvas.northeastern.edu
Required Text
• Additional reading materials will be provided by instructor on Canvas.
Laboratory Materials:

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Updated 3.2.21
Recommended Texts
• Sanz, I. P. (2019). Machine Learning with R Quick Start Guide: A beginner's guide to
implementing machine learning techniques from scratch using R 3.5. Packt Publishing Ltd.

• A. Garratt et al., Global and National Macroeconometric Modelling: A Long-Run Structural

Tools
This course contains audio-visual material, and, in some instances, you may be asked to participate in
audio-based activities, such as a Voice Discussion Board. A headset (headphones plus microphone) will
allow you to hear and record audio. The Logitech ClearChat Comfort USB Headset, or the Plantronics
Audio 470 or 500, or comparable brands/models, are recommended. Headsets can be purchased from
online vendors such as amazon.com, bestbuy.com, or newegg.com. This course may also require a
webcam. If your computer does not have an integrated webcam, webcams can be purchased at online
vendors such as amazon.com.
Program Learning Outcomes (PLOs)

Financial & Economic
Analysis/Data Analytics
Economics Knowledge
Base
Entrepreneurship/Intellec
tual Agility
Communication/Global
PLO 1 PLO 2 PLO 3 PLO 4
Use conceptual and
mathematical tools to
estimate economic
relationships such as
fluctuations in
employment, prices, and
economic growth.
Develop a coherent
framework for analyzing
the determination of
microeconomic and
macroeconomic variables
based on related theories
and models.
Design and implement a
project that applies
economic theories to
business and public policy
issues.
Develop a formal
proposal, real or
hypothetical, addressing a
global intercultural
communication challenge
in the field of commerce
and economic
development that has not
been adequately
addressed.

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Updated 3.2.21
SAIL Baseline Mapping

Enter 5 for Central, 4 for Significant, 3 for Moderate, 2 for Minimal, 1 for Potential, or 0
for None
Enter 1 for Passive
Engagement, 2 for Active
Engagement, or 3 for
Generative Engagement
Social
Consciousness
& Commitment
Global
Mindset Intellectual Agility
Personal &
Professional
Effectiveness
Well-
Being Level of Engagement
4 4 4 4 3 3

Course Learning Outcomes

Based on satisfactory completion of this course, by the end of the class students will be able to:
CLO1: History of modern business fluctuations
CLO2: Business cycle theories
CLO3: Business fluctuations and asset prices
CLO4: Exploring and visualizing time series
CLO5: Forecasting with exponential smoothing
CLO6: Forecasting with ARIMA models
CLO7: Advanced methods of forecasting
CLO8: Dimensionality reduction, Principal component, and Factor analysis
CLO9: Identification of critical episodes
CLO10: Tree-based methods and Random Forest.Assess the impact of macro-shocks on capital markets
with correlation analytics

Expectations
• Workload
o Students should expect 3 hours per week of classroom-related discussion and asynchronous
weekly learning plus a minimum of 9 hours per week of out-of-class student work for this 6-
week course.
o APA citations

Attendance Policy

Students are required to attend all scheduled classroom sessions virtually (synchronously or
asynchronously). Students are required to engage with all posted material. Student engagement with
the classroom session material and the weekly posted material is tracked. Absence of engagement with
the classroom sessions and the weekly instructional materials results in loss of score allocated for the
weekly classroom activity.
Policy on late work

A deduction of 20% percent will be made for each day (counted as any portion of a 24-hour period)
that an assignment is late. Late submissions for assignments due by 11:59 PM EST Thursday will not be
accepted after 5 PM EST Friday. Otherwise, work will no longer be accepted 3 days after the specified
deadline, unless specific arrangements have been made with the instructor. With prior permission
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Updated 3.2.21
only, any request for an exception to the late submission policy needs be supported by with a signed
doctor’s note. If an extension is granted, all missing assignments are expected to be submitted within 1
week of the termination of the period covered by the doctor’s note.
Policy on early submissions

Early submissions are encouraged. Draft materials received at least 24 hours before the deadline (the
in-advance-submission) will receive feedback and suggestions, allowing for improved final submission
before the deadline. Only the last submission received before the deadline will be graded.

Course Methodology

Each week, you will be expected to:
• Review the week's learning objectives
• Complete all assigned readings
• For each Reading Text Chapter assigned, create a PowerPoint slide summarizing the reading and
submit by email by due date (generally two days before next class) a minimum of one slide (per
chapter).
• Complete all lecture materials for the week: View all assigned videos and/or PowerPoint slides
(synchronously or asynchronously).
• Participate in the ongoing Discussion Board/Google document activities.
• Complete and submit all assignments and project by the due dates.
• Modelling and laboratory assignments: as assigned.

Participation/Class Discussion Board/Team Google document/Shared Google drive
Note: the schedule below is a typical schedule but may be modified to accommodate increased or
decreased assignment load during a specific week. Please consult instructions in the weekly
“Assignment” section on Canvas.
Participation on the Class Discussion Board/Team Google document/Shared Google drive is an integral
part of any online learning community. Each week students must post at least one primary response
(answering a discussion question posted by the instructor) and two secondary responses (responses to
other students’ posts). Participation in Discussion Board/Team Google document is worth 10% of the
total course grade. All postings are expected to be professional in tone, clear, comprehensible,
competently produced and delivered, and their content should reflect an understanding of at least the
lectures and readings assigned. All responses are required to be substantive and related to the weekly
topic(s) under discussion. They will be evaluated solely based on clarity and originality of posts, as well
as the degree to which peers' learning is enriched by those comments and posts. Posts will not be
evaluated based on frequency or length. In other words, quality of the posts is more important than
quantity of posts.
The Class Discussion Board and the Team Google document are spaces for academic exchanges. As a
result, you must check for proper and exacting punctuation, spelling, and grammar. In addition, you
must reference all outside sources in correct citation format. It is crucial that all participants maintain a
high regard for proper decorum in the Class Discussion Board/Team Google Document. A grading rubric
for Discussion Board/Team Google document responses is provided.
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Updated 3.2.21
Please treat your classmates and the instructors with the utmost respect. Inappropriate posts will be
removed immediately. The instructor reserves the right to penalize students for repeated violations of
the participation policy within a course.
In the Class Discussion board/Team Google document and in class, high quality contributions advance
the class discussions and do not simply summarize the material that was assigned. Quality
contributions consider not only the instructor’s questions but also your classmates’ contributions.
Communication/Submission of Work
Submissions shall be made through one of three possible means, as specified in a particular assignment:
1. Class Discussions submissions need to be made in the relevant location in Canvas.
2. Data, all analysis, and models used in the project need to be uploaded to the relevant Team
subfolder in a shared Google drive
3. Team Google document needs to be shared in the respective team folder of the shared Google
drive.

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